By Andrew Bary
A Chicago-based investment analyst who likes gold won the 2025 Barron's forecasting challenge , topping 4,500 others in our annual contest. Jack Nicholson, 37, a senior investment analyst at Bulletproof Capital, scored 13 on the 16-question (mostly multiple choice) challenge. The next-highest score was 11, and the average score was 4.6. (I got only two answers correct.)
One of the toughest questions asked participants to name 2025's top asset class. Only 13% picked gold. Less than 1% correctly selected the best-performing stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which was Caterpillar.
Nicholson's father was a floor trader in the Treasury bond futures pit at the Chicago Board of Trade. Nicholson, who has an M.B.A. from Northwestern's Kellogg School of Management, says that Bulletproof, a family office that manages money for a wealthy individual, invests in both public and private markets. The firm has had a sizable exposure to gold over the past five years and benefited from a surge in the metal's price. The firm owns the VanEck Merk Gold exchange-traded fund.
Nicholson's prize is a two-year Barron's subscription and lunch in New York with a Barron's staff member of his choice. Our 2026 contest ran in late December, and we got 3,000 responses. We'll announce a winner in early 2027. To see all of the questions and answers, go to barrons.com/quiz2025answers.
Write to Andrew Bary at andrew.bary@barrons.com
Last Week
Markets
A second shooting by federal officers in Minneapolis sparked a backlash and threatened a government shutdown. Gold topped $5,000 an ounce, and the dollar fell to a four-month low. President Trump floated 100% tariffs if Canada signed a China trade deal. He also threatened to decertify Canada's airplanes. Consumer confidence hit a 12-year low. The Federal Reserve held rates steady ahead of Trump nominating Kevin Warsh as chair. Volatile stocks hung on tech earnings. On the week, the Dow industrials fell 0.4%, the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.2%.
Companies
ASML led tech earnings with record quarterly orders. Microsoft reported higher costs and slowing cloud growth; Meta Platforms and Apple saw record quarterly revenue. Tesla dropped its models S and X in a pivot to robo-taxis and robots. The administration proposed raising Medicare Advantage rates 0.09% for 2027; shares of UnitedHealth Group, CVS Health, and Humana sank. Nvidia put $2 billion more into CoreWeave; Micron Technology is investing $24 billion over 10 years in Singapore; SoftBank, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon.com are talking to OpenAI on a possible $60 billion infusion. The European Union and India agreed to a trade deal. UPS is cutting 30,000 jobs and Amazon, 16,000. Panama killed CK Hutchison port contracts.
Deals
Lukoil sold its overseas assets to Carlyle... Coterra Energy and Devon Energy appeared to move closer to a $60 billion shale merger.
Next Week
Monday 2/2
Earnings season has gotten off to a solid start, with about 165 S&P 500 index companies having already released results. Roughly three-quarters have beaten earnings-per-share estimates, while nearly two-thirds have surpassed sales expectations. This week is the busiest, with more than 115 companies set to report. Palantir Technologies and Walt Disney kick off the week, announcing earnings on Monday, followed by Advanced Micro Devices and Merck on Tuesday. Alphabet and Eli Lilly announce quarterly results on Wednesday, while Amazon.com and Bristol Myers Squibb do the same on Thursday.
The Institute for Supply Management releases both its Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Indexes for January. Consensus estimate for the Manufacturing PMI, released on Monday, is for a 48.5 reading, and for the Services PMI, released on Wednesday, 53.5. This compares with readings of 47.9 and 53.8, respectively, in December.
Friday 2/6
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the jobs report for January. Economists forecast a 65,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls, after a 50,000 gain in December. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.4%. This release might be affected if there is a government shutdown.
The Numbers
$1 T
Value of Vanguard's growing assets outside the U.S. Most of its $12 trillion in global assets reside here.
16.5%
The increase in the price of gold so far this year, despite a late-week selloff. Last year saw gold rise 66%.
0.5%
The growth rate of the U.S. population in 2025, a rise of 1.8 million people, the lowest since 2021.
11.3 M
The total number of vehicles that Toyota Motor sold in 2025, up 4.6% over 2024 and No. 1 globally.
Write to Robert Teitelman at bob.teitelman@dowjones.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 30, 2026 19:58 ET (00:58 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments