Santos (ASX:STO) Is Up 8.5% After Barossa’s First On‑Budget LNG Shipment - What's Changed

Simply Wall St.01-30

Santos has completed its first liquefied natural gas shipment from the Barossa project, achieving a major operational milestone after years of investment and delays, with the project delivered on ...

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This first cargo effectively moves Barossa from construction into commissioning, a shift that could influence how investors view Santos’ future LNG cash-flow profile and project execution capabilities. We’ll now look at how Barossa’s on-budget first LNG shipment reshapes Santos’ investment narrative and longer-term project execution story. We've found 14 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.AdvertisementWhat Is Santos' Investment Narrative?To own Santos, you really need to believe in its LNG-led cash flow story, disciplined project delivery and continued appetite for capital returns, even with modest growth expectations and a low forecast return on equity. The first Barossa LNG shipment is a clear shift from construction risk to commissioning risk and helps ease concerns around cost blowouts, particularly after years of delays. That said, it does not remove the bigger issues investors have been weighing: softer profit margins than last year, dividends that are not covered by free cash flow, and a recent track record of underperforming both the market and the broader oil and gas sector. With the failed takeover proposal now in the rear-view mirror, near term catalysts look increasingly tied to Barossa ramp-up progress and the upcoming February 18 full year result. However, one key operational and financial risk remains easy to underestimate at first glance.\n\nSantos' shares have been on the rise but are still potentially undervalued. Find out how large the opportunity might be.Exploring Other PerspectivesASX:STO 1-Year Stock Price Chart Seven Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates span from A$6.52 to about A$15.71, underlining just how far apart individual views can be. Against that backdrop, Barossa’s move into commissioning focuses attention on execution quality and cash generation, which could be critical for how Santos’ performance is judged over the next few result cycles.Explore 7 other fair value estimates on Santos - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!Build Your Own Santos NarrativeDisagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.A great starting point for your Santos research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.Our free Santos research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Santos' overall financial health at a glance.Curious About Other Options?The market won't wait. These fast-moving stocks are hot now. Grab the list before they run:The end of cancer? These 29 emerging AI stocks are developing tech that will allow early identification of life changing diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's.Explore 24 top quantum computing companies leading the revolution in next-gen technology and shaping the future with breakthroughs in quantum algorithms, superconducting qubits, and cutting-edge research.AI is about to change healthcare. These 110 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10b in market cap - there's still time to get in early.  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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