Is It Too Late To Consider BHP Group (ASX:BHP) After Strong Multi‑Year Share Gains?

Simply Wall St.01-30

If you are wondering whether BHP Group’s current share price lines up with its underlying worth, you are not alone. This article is built to help you frame that question clearly. BHP Group shares last...

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BHP Group shares last...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-bhp/bhp-group-shares/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-bhp-group-asxbhp-after-strong-mul\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"simplywall_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is It Too Late To Consider BHP Group (ASX:BHP) After Strong Multi‑Year Share Gains?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs It Too Late To Consider BHP Group (ASX:BHP) After Strong Multi‑Year Share Gains?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-30 13:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-bhp/bhp-group-shares/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-bhp-group-asxbhp-after-strong-mul><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you are wondering whether BHP Group’s current share price lines up with its underlying worth, you are not alone. This article is built to help you frame that question clearly. BHP Group shares last...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-bhp/bhp-group-shares/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-bhp-group-asxbhp-after-strong-mul\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BHP","symbol_name":"必和必拓公司","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-bhp/bhp-group-shares/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-bhp-group-asxbhp-after-strong-mul","article_id":"2607150030","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/company-cover/256654-main-header/1585186732463"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-bhp/bhp-group-shares/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-bhp-group-asxbhp-after-strong-mul","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2607150030","pubTimestamp":1769750950,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"If you are wondering whether BHP Group’s current share price lines up with its underlying worth, you are not alone. This article is built to help you frame that question clearly.\nBHP Group shares last closed at A$51.51, with returns of 7.1% over 7 days, 14.2% over 30 days, 12.6% year to date, 36.1% over 1 year, 22.8% over 3 years and 86.9% over 5 years. 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BHP Group shares last closed at A$51.51, with returns of 7.1% over 7 days, 14.2% over 30 days, 12.6% year to date, 36.1% over 1 year, 22.8% over 3 years and 86.9% over 5 years. This naturally raises questions about how much upside or risk might now be priced in. Recent attention on BHP Group has centered on how its scale, commodity exposure and capital plans fit into investor views on resources companies, with many headlines focusing on how larger miners are positioned in global supply chains. These themes help frame why investors are reassessing what a fair price for BHP Group might look like today. On our simple valuation checklist, BHP Group scores 3 out of 6. Next we will walk through traditional valuation approaches like multiples and cash flow models, before finishing with a way of thinking about valuation that can give you an even clearer sense of the story behind the numbers.  Find out why BHP Group's 36.1% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers. AdvertisementApproach 1: BHP Group Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a company could be worth by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them back to today, using a required rate of return. For BHP Group, the model uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about $10.35b. Analyst forecasts and subsequent extrapolations suggest free cash flow of around $10.11b in 2026, rising to a projected $11.15b by 2030, with later years estimated by Simply Wall St beyond the explicit analyst horizon. When these future cash flows are discounted back to today, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of A$39.82 per share. Against the recent share price of A$51.51, the DCF output implies the stock is around 29.3% above this estimate, which points to a valuation that is richer than the modelled cash flow profile would support. Result: OVERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests BHP Group may be overvalued by 29.3%. Discover 865 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities. BHP Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for BHP Group. Approach 2: BHP Group Price vs Earnings For a profitable business like BHP Group, the P/E ratio is a useful way to see how much investors are paying for each dollar of earnings. It ties the share price directly to the company’s current profit, which is often the anchor for many valuation conversations. What counts as a “normal” P/E depends on how investors view growth potential and risk. Higher expected earnings growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk usually argues for a lower one. BHP Group currently trades on a P/E of 20.41x. That sits below the Metals and Mining industry average P/E of 27.39x and below the peer group average of 23.98x. Simply Wall St also calculates a proprietary “Fair Ratio” for BHP Group of 31.66x, which is the P/E it might trade on given its earnings growth profile, margins, industry, market cap and risk factors. This Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple peer or industry comparison, because it aims to adjust for company specific characteristics rather than assuming all miners deserve similar multiples. On this view, BHP Group’s current 20.41x P/E is below the 31.66x Fair Ratio, which indicates the shares could be undervalued on an earnings basis. Result: UNDERVALUED ASX:BHP P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1412 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your BHP Group Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, which are simply your story about a company linked to your own forecast and a fair value estimate. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, used by millions of investors, a Narrative lets you set assumptions for BHP Group’s future revenue, earnings and margins, so the story you believe in flows through to a financial forecast and then to a fair value that you can compare with the current share price to help decide if, for you, it looks more like a time to buy, hold or sell. Narratives on the platform update automatically when new information such as news or earnings is added, so your story and fair value stay aligned with fresh data rather than becoming stale. For example, one BHP Group Narrative might adopt a relatively high fair value with stronger long term assumptions, while another might use a lower fair value based on more cautious expectations, and you can see both side by side to judge which story you find more reasonable. Do you think there's more to the story for BHP Group? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! ASX:BHP 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if BHP Group might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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