US crude output still down by 500,000 bpd from winter storm, consultancy estimates

Recasts with new outage forecasts from analysts

By Georgina McCartney

HOUSTON, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Around half a million barrels per day of crude production or nearly 0.5% of global supply remained offline in the United States on Thursday, according to consultancy Energy Aspects, as an Arctic blast gripped a large area of the country in the wake of a winter storm over the weekend.

Production outages in the U.S. and in Kazakhstan this week have contributed to a rise in benchmark U.S. oil futures this week to a five-month high. Oil prices rose 3% on Thursday on concerns that the U.S would attack Iran.

Around 100,000 bpd of production has come back online since Wednesday. Outages peaked at around 2 million bpd at the weekend. U.S. crude output was forecast to total 13.76 million bpd in January, the Energy Information Administration said this month, putting current outages at around 3.6% of total output.

Most of the remaining outages were in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico, which accounts for around half of U.S. crude production, according to Energy Aspects analyst Jesse Jones, who said production there was recovering quickly.

Permian outages were seen at around 247,000 bpd as of Thursday, according to analysts at Rystad.

In total, the U.S. would lose an average of 340,000 bpd over the month due to the cold weather, J.P. Morgan analysts said in a note on Thursday. The impact had been worse than expected, and the average daily loss would be higher if the recovery is slower than anticipated, JPMorgan said.

Nearly all of North Dakota's production was back online, Justin Kringstad, director of the North Dakota Pipeline Authority, said on Thursday. North Dakota is the third-largest oil-producing U.S. state, and output totaled 1.189 million bpd in November, the latest monthly data from the state's Industrial Commission showed.

Prices of West Texas Intermediate crude at Midland and the grade delivered to Magellan's East Houston terminal (MEH) have risen for four straight sessions. Both assessments were up 25 cents to premiums of 90 cents and $1.20, respectively, against U.S. crude futures over that period.

U.S. crude exports have rebounded after no loadings took place on Sunday, according to Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at Kpler.

Crude exports have averaged 3.2 million bpd over the last three days, and are set to finish on a weekly basis at a lower pace than usual, potentially at around 3 million bpd rather than the typical 4 million bpd, Smith said.

Meanwhile, natural gas output was down by around 6.1 billion cubic feet per day, down from peak losses of 18.1 bcfd on Monday, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie. Total natural gas output is expected to total 119.9 bcfd in January, according to the IEA, putting Thursday's outages at around 5.1% of total output.

On the refining side, several refineries along the U.S. Gulf Coast reported issues related to the freezing weather over the weekend, but were also starting to recover.

"As the winter storm hit last weekend we saw wholesale liftings that were about 40% of the prior weekend. It's remained soft this week, but gradually recovering," Gary Simmons, COO of U.S. refiner Valero, said during an earnings call on Thursday, referring to the refinery's sale of fuel products.

(Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston and Nicole Jao in New York; Editing by Liz Hampton, Nia Williams, Will Dunham, Paul Simao and David Gregorio)

((Georgina.McCartney@thomsonreuters.com; Twitter/X @G__McCartney; +1 (832) 577-3987))