Assessing Firefly Aerospace (FLY) Valuation As Alpha Flight 7 And Lock Up Expiry Approach

Simply Wall St.01-29

Firefly Aerospace (FLY) is back in focus as traders weigh two near term catalysts: the upcoming Alpha rocket Flight 7 launch and a lock up expiry that could add more shares to the market. See our ...

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See our ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/capital-goods/nasdaq-fly/firefly-aerospace/news/assessing-firefly-aerospace-fly-valuation-as-alpha-flight-7\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"simplywall_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Assessing Firefly Aerospace (FLY) Valuation As Alpha Flight 7 And Lock Up Expiry Approach</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAssessing Firefly Aerospace (FLY) Valuation As Alpha Flight 7 And Lock Up Expiry Approach\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-29 15:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/capital-goods/nasdaq-fly/firefly-aerospace/news/assessing-firefly-aerospace-fly-valuation-as-alpha-flight-7><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Firefly Aerospace (FLY) is back in focus as traders weigh two near term catalysts: the upcoming Alpha rocket Flight 7 launch and a lock up expiry that could add more shares to the market. See our ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/capital-goods/nasdaq-fly/firefly-aerospace/news/assessing-firefly-aerospace-fly-valuation-as-alpha-flight-7\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4187","symbol_name":"航天航空与国防","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/capital-goods/nasdaq-fly/firefly-aerospace/news/assessing-firefly-aerospace-fly-valuation-as-alpha-flight-7","article_id":"2607357081","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/industry/3021000-choice1-main-header/1585186644732"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/capital-goods/nasdaq-fly/firefly-aerospace/news/assessing-firefly-aerospace-fly-valuation-as-alpha-flight-7","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2607357081","pubTimestamp":1769672265,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Firefly Aerospace (FLY) is back in focus as traders weigh two near term catalysts: the upcoming Alpha rocket Flight 7 launch and a lock up expiry that could add more shares to the market.\nSee our latest analysis for Firefly Aerospace.\nRecent trading has been choppy, with a 9.18% intraday drop and heightened attention on the lock up expiry. However, a 30 day share price return of 22.29% and a 90 day return of 18.04% suggest momentum is still building from a volatile base at $28.86.\nIf...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4187":"航天航空与国防","FLY":"Firefly Aerospace Inc."},"translate_title":"评估Firefly Aerospace(FLY)作为Alpha Flight 7的估值并锁定到期方法","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"FLY":1.5},"content_text":"Firefly Aerospace (FLY) is back in focus as traders weigh two near term catalysts: the upcoming Alpha rocket Flight 7 launch and a lock up expiry that could add more shares to the market. See our latest analysis for Firefly Aerospace. Recent trading has been choppy, with a 9.18% intraday drop and heightened attention on the lock up expiry. However, a 30 day share price return of 22.29% and a 90 day return of 18.04% suggest momentum is still building from a volatile base at $28.86. If Firefly’s story has you watching the broader space and defense theme, this could be a good moment to scan aerospace and defense stocks as you hunt for other ideas in the sector. With the stock at $28.86, a value score of 2, and both an intrinsic and analyst target discount showing on paper, the key question is simple: is Firefly still misunderstood, or is the market already pricing in its future growth? AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 93.3% Undervalued According to the most followed narrative, Firefly Aerospace’s fair value of $432.79 sits far above the last close at $28.86, which sets up a very aggressive upside case.  Where do you think revenue will be in 5 years, and why? I think Firefly’s revenue could reach around $4-5 billion within five years. The company’s been landing more contracts with NASA and the Department of Defense, and the demand for small-to-medium satellite launches is growing fast. If Firefly continues scaling up its Alpha and MLV rockets and starts running launches consistently, that kind of growth seems realistic. It won’t hit the extreme 99% yearly growth shown in the projection, but steady expansion and contract renewals could push revenue into the multi-billion range. Where do you think earnings will be in 5 years, and why? I expect Firefly to move from losses to modest profitability, maybe $200-300 million in earnings by year five. Once production ramps up and launch costs drop, margins should improve. It’ll take a few years to pay off debt and stabilize operations, but if they keep delivering for NASA and defense clients, profits should start showing up by then.  Read the complete narrative. Want to see what kind of revenue surge and margin flip needs to happen to back that $432.79 fair value? The key ingredients here are rapid top line expansion, a sharp profitability shift from current losses, and a valuation multiple more often associated with mature growth stories. Curious how those moving parts fit together and what timeline the narrative is banking on? The full breakdown connects each assumption to that punchy price. Result: Fair Value of $432.79 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this hinges on Firefly turning a net loss of $395.833 million into earnings and scaling revenue far beyond the current $111.216 million base. Find out about the key risks to this Firefly Aerospace narrative.  Build Your Own Firefly Aerospace Narrative If you are not fully sold on this view or you prefer to stress test the numbers yourself, you can build a fresh narrative in minutes with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Firefly Aerospace research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If Firefly has you thinking bigger about your portfolio, do not stop here. The next moves you make across other themes could matter just as much.  Spot potential mispricings early by scanning these 878 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that may offer more attractive entry points than the broader market. Tap into the growth of digital assets through these 19 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks and see which companies are building real businesses around blockchain and cryptocurrencies. Strengthen your income stream by checking these 14 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that currently yield more than 3% and may complement higher risk ideas like Firefly.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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