PayPal's Branded Checkout Growth to Slow Amid Share Loss, Morgan Stanley Says

MT Newswires Live01-29

PayPal (PYPL) is set to see slower Branded Checkout growth amid softer e-commerce trends and continued loss of market share to competitors, Morgan Stanley said in a note on Wednesday.

Progress on upgrading checkout integrations has been slower than expected, with only about 25% of merchants moving to the new experience after 15 months, and just half of those using the most optimized version, the firm said.

As a result, Branded Checkout growth is now expected to be 3.3% in 2026, down from 3.9%, the firm said, adding that it is also reducing its buyback forecast, expecting PayPal to repurchase $4.5 billion of shares in 2026 instead of $5.4 billion.

These changes lower the 2026 adjusted earnings per share forecast slightly to $5.79, Morgan Stanley said.

Morgan Stanley adjusted its price target on PayPal to $50 from $51 and maintained its underweight rating.

Price: 54.62, Change: -0.89, Percent Change: -1.61

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