Hershey EPS Visibility Strengthened by Strong Scanner Trends, Falling Cocoa Prices, Morgan Stanley Says

MT Newswires Live01-29

Hershey (HSY) is seeing improved visibility to its 2026 and 2027 earnings per share due to strong sales volume trends and a recent decline in cocoa prices, Morgan Stanley said in a Wednesday note.

The brokerage said that Cocoa prices have fallen roughly 27% last month to the lowest level in almost two years, with futures moving similarly.

The move in cocoa is expected to provide a modest tailwind to Hershey's H2 projections relative to Q3 expectations, while the impact is more significant for fiscal 2027 earnings per share.

Lower cocoa costs could boost earnings visibility and upside potential, with Morgan Stanley estimating about $0.70 EPS benefit to the base-case fiscal 2027 forecast of $8.59 and roughly $1.00 to the bull-case scenario of $9.41.

The combination of improving scanner trends and falling cocoa prices strengthens confidence in above-consensus EPS forecasts for 2026 and 2027, according to the note.

Hershey is scheduled to report Q4 earnings on Feb. 5 before market open.

Morgan Stanley reiterated its overweight rating on the stock and raised the price target to $214 from $211.

Price: 191.97, Change: +0.34, Percent Change: +0.18

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