高盛快评闪迪季报：业绩超过了“本就很高”的预期

华尔街见闻01-30

高盛称，闪迪业绩不仅跨越了市场的高门槛，更是全面碾压预期。其Q4营收30.3亿美元、毛利率51.1%及EPS 6.2美元均远超华尔街共识。更惊人的是Q1指引：营收预期高出市场53%，EPS指引更是市场预期的2.4倍。这表明NAND存储行业正经历超预期景气周期，将对美光科技等同类公司产生积极连带效应。高盛称，不要被之前的担忧蒙蔽双眼——闪迪不仅跨越了市场的高门槛，更是直接碾压了所有预期。1月30日，...

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6.2美元均远超华尔街共识。更惊人的是Q1指引：营收预期高出市场53%，EPS指引更是市场预期的2.4倍。这表明NAND存储行业正经历超预期景气周期，将对美光科技等同类公司产生积极连带效应。高盛称，不要被之前的担忧蒙蔽双眼——闪迪不仅跨越了市场的高门槛，更是直接碾压了所有预期。1月30日，据追风交易台消息，高盛在最新研报中称，尽管在英伟达发布存储控制器公告、行业供需紧张以及价格预期强劲的推动下，SanDisk股价近期已经经历了大幅上涨，导致市场原本对本次财报的门槛极高，但公司交出的答卷依然令人瞠目结舌。高盛认为，无论是刚刚过去的第四季度，还是对未来一季度的指引，数据都不仅仅是“超预期”，而是远超（Far Above）华尔街共识。高盛分析师表示，闪迪4季度营收达到30.3亿美元，高出高盛和市场的共识预期；更令人瞩目的是毛利率达到51.1%，远超高盛43.0%和市场42.3%的预期。研报称，尽管高盛维持320美元目标价和买入评级，当前股价已近540美元，较目标价高出40%，显示市场对NAND存储行业供需紧张局面的定价已经非常激进。高盛称，然而，公司给出的1季度指引更为惊人——预计营收中位数达46亿美元，较市场预期高出53.3%，毛利率指引66.0%，每股收益指引中位数13.00美元，几乎是市场预期的2.4倍。高盛认为，这些数据表明，NAND存储行业可能正经历一轮超预期的景气周期，对美光科技等同类公司可能产生积极连带效应。第四季度实绩：不仅是Beat，是碾压研报称，市场原本预期闪迪能交出一份不错的成绩单，但实际结果显示，华尔街的分析模型完全低估了公司的盈利能力。营收（Revenue）：闪迪财报营收为30.3亿美元。相比之下，高盛此前预测为27.0亿美元，而华尔街（Visible Alpha共识）预测仅为26.9亿美元。毛利率（Gross Margin）：这是最惊人的部分之一。实际毛利率飙升至 51.1%，远远甩开了高盛预测的43.0%和华尔街预期的42.3%。每股收益（Non-GAAP EPS）：最终录得 6.20美元。这一数字不仅击败了预期，简直是嘲笑了预期——高盛预测为3.66美元，华尔街预期为3.55美元。实际业绩几乎是市场预期的两倍。第一季度指引：颠覆性的增长预期高盛表示，如果说Q4业绩是“过去式”，那么公司给出的Q1指引则直接引爆了投资者的情绪。管理层的展望显示，NAND供应的紧张程度和定价权正在转化为巨额利润。营收指引：公司预计Q1营收中值为46.0亿美元。高盛此前仅预测26.2亿美元，华尔街预期为30.0亿美元，指引高出市场共识50%以上。毛利率指引：预计将进一步攀升至 66.0%。高盛预测为44.0%，华尔街预期为47.2%。这预示着极其强劲的定价能力。每股收益指引（EPS Guidance）：公司给出的范围是12.00美元至14.00美元，中值为13.00美元。高盛此前预测仅为3.48美元，华尔街预期为5.42美元。指引中值比华尔街预期高出140%，比高盛自身预期高出273%。高盛分析师指出，投资者预期的显著提升主要源于近期股价的暴涨、行业供需的紧张以及英伟达在存储领域的动作。该行明确指出，预计美光科技将因类似的终端市场敞口而出现积极反应。作为NAND和DRAM存储芯片的主要供应商，美光科技面临相似的行业供需环境。闪迪的超预期表现可能预示着整个存储芯片行业正处于一轮强劲的上行周期。~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~以上精彩内容来自追风交易台。更详细的解读，包括实时解读、一线研究等内容，请加入【追风交易台▪年度会员】            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。          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