HKBN (SEHK:1310) Valuation Check After Exclusive Venustech Cybersecurity Distribution Agreement

Simply Wall St.01-29

AdvertisementWhy the Venustech agreement matters for HKBN HKBN (SEHK:1310) has signed a Distribution Framework Agreement with Venustech, giving it exclusive rights in Hong Kong and Macao to distribute...

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See our latest analysis for HKBN. HKBN’s 1 month share price return of 14.12% and year to date share price return of 12.48% suggest building momentum, while the 41.55% 1 year total shareholder return points to a much stronger payoff for investors who stayed invested over the past year. If this move into cybersecurity has caught your attention, it could be worth seeing what else is happening across telecoms and digital infrastructure by checking out high growth tech and AI stocks. With HKBN trading at HK$7.03 against an indicated intrinsic value gap of 56.79%, and recent returns already strong, you have to ask: is this still an undervalued telecom and cybersecurity play, or is future growth already priced in? Most Popular Narrative: 8.2% Overvalued HKBN last closed at HK$7.03, compared with a widely followed fair value estimate of HK$6.50 that applies a discount rate of 8.62%.  The implementation of the GigaFast campaign and investment in advanced broadband technology, such as the Nokia 25 gig, positions HKBN to increase its enterprise customer base and revenue by transitioning existing clients to higher-speed packages, thereby potentially increasing margins. The bundling of telecom services with the ICT/System Integration business allows HKBN to increase customer loyalty and upsell, thereby increasing average revenue per user (ARPU) and enhancing profitability.  Read the complete narrative. Curious what kind of revenue mix, margin lift and earnings profile would justify that HK$6.50 fair value, especially with today’s dividend and debt load in the background? Result: Fair Value of HK$6.50 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this hinges on HKBN managing its China vendor exposure and debt load, as both could pressure cash flow and challenge that HK$6.50 fair value story. Find out about the key risks to this HKBN narrative. Another View on HKBN's Value The fair value of HK$6.50 points to HKBN being about 8.2% overvalued on one set of assumptions, yet our DCF model suggests the shares trade at roughly a 56.8% discount to an estimated cash flow value of HK$16.27. When two methods disagree this much, which set of expectations do you find more realistic? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. 1310 Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out HKBN for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 876 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.  Build Your Own HKBN Narrative If you look at this and feel your own view pulling in a different direction, that is a signal to stress test the numbers yourself and build the version of HKBN’s story that fits your assumptions in just a few minutes, then Do it your way. A great starting point for your HKBN research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If HKBN has sparked fresh thinking about your portfolio, do not stop here. The broader market is full of opportunities that might fit your approach even better.  Spot potential turnarounds early by scanning these 3512 penny stocks with strong financials that already show stronger financial foundations than many expect at this size. Consider the AI trend with these 24 AI penny stocks that combine artificial intelligence themes with lower share prices for higher-risk, higher-reward positioning. Look for potential mispricing by checking these 876 undervalued stocks based on cash flows, where share prices sit below estimates based on underlying cash flows.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if HKBN might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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