Adds latest prices
Northeast spot power prices hit record $314/MWh amid cold
Gas output rises as frozen wells thaw, LSEG reports
Lower 48 gas demand to fall from 169.2 bcfd to 155.0 bcfd next week
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, Jan 28 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures soared by a record 140% over the past seven days to a 40-month high on Wednesday in volatile trade ahead of contract expiration that forced some speculators to pay exorbitant amounts to cover short positions.
An Arctic blast boosted heating demand to near-record levels and cut output to a two-year low by freezing oil and gas wells.
On its last day as the front month, gas futures for February delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 50.6 cents, or 7.3%, to settle at $7.45 per million British thermal units, their highest close since September 2022.
Energy analysts noted the front month was so volatile on Wednesday - down as much as 15% and up 13% in intraday trade - because trading volume was low ahead of contract expiry.
Futures for March NGH26, which will soon be the front month, were down about 2% to $3.73 per mmBtu.
In the cash market, traders noted the brutal freeze was easing its grip on much of the country, but that it remains extremely cold in the U.S. Northeast, where next-day power prices soared by 100% to a record $314 per megawatt-hour for Wednesday in New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX. That was just one of many price records seen in the spot power and gas markets this week.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states dropped to 106.1 billion cubic feet per day in January, down from a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.
Daily output was on track to rise for a third day in a row to 97.5 bcfd on Wednesday after collapsing to a two-year low of 92.5 bcfd on Sunday due mostly to freezing wells in Texas, Louisiana and Oklahoma, according to LSEG data. That compares with a recent high of 110.0 bcfd on January 12 and an all-time daily high of 111.2 bcfd on December 21.
That means output fell about 17.5 bcfd from January 13-25. In past winters, freezing wells, known as freeze-offs in the energy industry, have slashed gas output by massive amounts, including the loss of around 17.2 bcfd from January 8-16 in 2024, cuts of 15.8 bcfd from December 20-24 in 2022, and a drop of 20.4 bcfd from February 8-17 in 2021, according to LSEG data.
Meteorologists projected weather across the country would remain mostly colder than normal through February 12, though not nearly as cold as the weekend of January 24-25.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 169.2 bcfd this week to 155.0 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.
On a daily basis, LSEG said total demand reached 174.9 bcfd on January 26, which was lower than its 176.2 bcfd forecast on Tuesday. That compares with the Lower 48 daily all-time high of 181.2 bcfd on January 21, 2025.
Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants fell to 17.7 bcfd so far in January, down from a monthly record high of 18.5 bcfd in December.
On a daily basis, however, LNG feedgas was on track to rise for a second day in a row to 16.4 bcfd on Wednesday after dropping to a one-year low of 11.5 bcfd on Monday due to reductions at several plants during the weekend winter storm, including at Freeport LNG in Texas and Elba Island in Georgia.
In other LNG news, some energy firms took the unusual step of importing gas into the U.S. this week to capture record-high prices during the Arctic blast.
Week ended Jan 23 Forecast | Week ended Jan 16 Actual | Year ago Jan 23 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Jan 23 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -232 | -120 | -307 | -208 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,833 | 3,065 | 2,617 | 2,680 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +5.7% | +6.1% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 6.44 | 6.95 | 3.72 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 13.03 | 13.98 | 14.67 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 11.35 | 11.23 | 14.16 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System $(GFS)$ Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 521 | 540 | 375 | 427 | 438 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 2 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 3 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 523 | 542 | 386 | 431 | 441 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 107.4 | 96.6 | 96.5 | 105.3 | 98.6 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 10.3 | 11.5 | 8.7 | N/A | 9.6 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 117.8 | 108.3 | 105.2 | N/A | 108.3 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.4 | N/A | 2.9 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.8 | N/A | 5.8 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.8 | 14.9 | 16.9 | 14.8 | 12.8 |
U.S. Commercial | 19.9 | 24.8 | 21.4 | 16.7 | 17.3 |
U.S. Residential | 33.7 | 43.7 | 36.6 | 28.4 | 29.9 |
U.S. Power Plant | 35.2 | 40.8 | 36.5 | 34.4 | 32.5 |
U.S. Industrial | 26.7 | 28.3 | 27.1 | 25.3 | 26.0 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 3.3 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 4.4 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 124.2 | 146.4 | 129.9 | 113.5 | 115.5 |
Total U.S. Demand | 151.9 | 169.2 | 155.0 | N/A | 137.0 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 92 | 92 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 92 | 92 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 96 | 97 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Jan 30 | Week ended Jan 23 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Wind | 9 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
40 | 37 | 40 | 42 | 41 | |
Coal | 22 | 20 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 17 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 17.19 | 25.01 | 4.13 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 37.76 | 131.51 | 8.77 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.80 | 3.39 | 3.87 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 10.77 | 58.73 | 3.74 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 15.20 | 65.81 | 3.93 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 65.00 | 172.50 | 15.67 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 7.00 | 7.44 | 4.49 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 9.06 | 9.95 | 3.27 | 1.15 | 2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.63 | 1.70 | 1.22 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 626.71 | 312.50 | 147.88 | 77.61 | 61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX | 569.86 | 1014.40 | 75.11 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 38.31 | 51.01 | 52.79 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 50.49 | 67.73 | 44.47 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 53.26 | 58.82 | 39.98 | 28.44 | 53.02 |
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Andrea Ricci, Rod Nickel)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))
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