Will Air China's Projected 2025 Net Loss Reshape Its Core Narrative (SEHK:753)?

Simply Wall St.01-31

In past guidance for 2025, Air China Limited said it expects to post a net loss of about RMB 1.30 billion to RMB 1.90 billion, with an even larger loss of roughly RMB 1.90 billion to RMB 2.70 billion ...

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This outlook highlights how underlying operations, once one-off gains and losses are stripped out, could weigh more heavily on Air China’s financial performance. Next, we’ll examine how this projected 2025 loss, particularly after excluding non-recurring items, shapes Air China’s broader investment narrative. The end of cancer? These 29 emerging AI stocks are developing tech that will allow early identification of life changing diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's.AdvertisementWhat Is Air China's Investment Narrative?To own Air China today, you really have to believe the airline can turn recent operational momentum into sustainable profitability despite a weak 2025 outlook. The company has just guided to a net loss of about RMB 1.30 billion to RMB 1.90 billion for 2025, or roughly RMB 1.90 billion to RMB 2.70 billion once non-recurring items are excluded, which directly challenges earlier expectations of cleaner, earnings-led progress. In the near term, the key catalysts many investors were watching, such as improving load factors and the planned CN¥20.0 billion A-share placement, now sit alongside renewed questions about cost control, yields and balance sheet pressure. The stock still screens as “good value” on sales multiples, but this guidance makes the quality and durability of any future recovery the central debate. However, the scale of those projected recurring losses is something investors should not ignore.\n\nDespite retreating, Air China's shares might still be trading 25% above their fair value. Discover the potential downside here.Exploring Other PerspectivesSEHK:753 1-Year Stock Price Chart Three Simply Wall St Community fair values span about HK$4.72 to HK$9.25, reflecting very different expectations. Set against the company’s guided RMB 1.90 billion to RMB 2.70 billion recurring loss for 2025, that spread underlines how differently people are thinking about Air China’s path back to stable profitability.Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Air China - why the stock might be worth as much as 32% more than the current price!Build Your Own Air China NarrativeDisagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.A great starting point for your Air China research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.Our free Air China research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Air China's overall financial health at a glance.Contemplating Other Strategies?Don't miss your shot at the next 10-bagger. Our latest stock picks just dropped:Uncover the next big thing with financially sound penny stocks that balance risk and reward.This technology could replace computers: discover 24 stocks that are working to make quantum computing a reality.We've found 14 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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