Alaska Air Group (ALK) Valuation Check As Earnings Beat And Hawaiian Integration Progress Lift Sentiment

Simply Wall St.01-28

Alaska Air Group (ALK) is back in focus after fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share came in ahead of expectations, alongside ongoing Hawaiian Airlines integration, cargo expansion plans, and a ...

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See our latest analysis for Alaska Air Group. The earnings surprise and progress on integrating Hawaiian Airlines helped lift sentiment, with a 4% one day share price return contributing to an 8.82% 7 day gain and a 24.01% 90 day share price return, even though the 1 year total shareholder return remains a 27.46% loss. If you are watching how airline stocks react to earnings and fleet decisions, it can also be useful to see what is happening across aerospace and defense stocks right now. With earnings guidance now on the table, a major Boeing order secured through 2035, and a share price still showing a 1 year loss, the key question is whether Alaska Air Group is mispriced value or if the market already reflects future growth. AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 20.9% Undervalued With Alaska Air Group last closing at $51.80 versus a narrative fair value of $65.47, the current setup hinges on whether its long term earnings path plays out as expected.  The successful integration of Hawaiian Airlines and realization of synergy initiatives, particularly in network connectivity and premium offerings, are unlocking incremental profit, enhancing operational efficiency, and supporting margin expansion throughout the next several years.  Read the complete narrative. Curious what earnings runway could justify that gap? Revenue, margins, and share count all shift in this story. The key assumptions might surprise you. Result: Fair Value of $65.47 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this story can still break if fuel and labor costs stay elevated, or if the Hawaiian integration drags and keeps margins and earnings below current expectations. Find out about the key risks to this Alaska Air Group narrative. Another View: Earnings Multiple Tells A Different Story While the narrative fair value suggests Alaska Air Group looks undervalued, the current P/E of 59.8x is well above the global airlines average of 9.3x, the peer average of 27.5x, and even its own fair ratio of 31.8x. That premium raises the question of how much earnings risk you are really taking on. See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. NYSE:ALK P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026 Build Your Own Alaska Air Group Narrative If you see the numbers differently or prefer to test your own assumptions, you can build a custom Alaska Air Group story in minutes with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Alaska Air Group research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If Alaska Air Group has caught your attention, do not stop there. Broaden your watchlist with focused stock ideas that match how you like to invest.  Target value opportunities by scanning these 876 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that align with your preferences on fundamentals and price. Tap into potential growth by reviewing these 24 AI penny stocks at the crossroads of technology and real world applications. Strengthen your income focus by checking these 13 dividend stocks with yields > 3% offering yields above 3% that might fit a cash flow oriented portfolio.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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