A Look At Mattel (MAT) Valuation After Weaker Quarterly Revenue, Tariff Headwinds And Reaffirmed Guidance

Simply Wall St.02-01 09:19

Mattel (MAT) is back in focus after a softer third quarter, where revenue declined 5.9% year on year and fell 5.5% short of analyst expectations, even as management reiterated full year 2025 guidance....

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See our latest analysis for Mattel. The softer third quarter and Mexico tariff headlines arrive after a period where short term momentum has picked up, with a 90 day share price return of 13.66% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 12.07%, while the 3 year total shareholder return of 1.60% decline suggests a more mixed longer term picture. If Mattel's recent moves have you rethinking where growth could come from next, it might be a good moment to broaden your search and check out fast growing stocks with high insider ownership. With Mattel trading at US$20.89, sitting below an average analyst price target of US$24.00 and with some models suggesting a sizable intrinsic discount, you have to ask: is there a genuine opportunity here, or is the market already baking in future growth? AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 28% Undervalued The most followed narrative pegs Mattel’s fair value at about $29 per share, comfortably above the last close of $20.89. This sets up a very different story to the current market price.  Mattel is positioned to capture rising demand in emerging markets due to its broad brand portfolio and international presence, with nearly half of its revenue coming from outside the U.S. and strong growth in regions like Asia Pacific and EMEA. Sustained expansion of the global middle class and increasing disposable income are expected to drive significantly higher sales and earnings over time.  Read the complete narrative. Curious what has to happen for Mattel to earn that higher price tag? The narrative leans on steady global expansion, firmer margins, and a richer earnings multiple tied to those ambitions. The full set of revenue, profit and valuation assumptions sits behind that $29 figure, and the gaps versus today’s price are where the real story gets interesting. Result: Fair Value of $29 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this hinges on physical toy demand holding up against digital entertainment, as well as on Mattel managing sustainability costs without squeezing margins too hard. Find out about the key risks to this Mattel narrative.  Build Your Own Mattel Narrative If you see the numbers differently, or would rather rely on your own research and assumptions, you can quickly create a custom Mattel view with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Mattel research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If Mattel is on your radar, do not stop there. The screener can quickly surface other angles that might suit your goals just as well.  Tap into potential mispricing by scanning these 871 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that currently trade below what their cash flows might suggest. Ride major shifts in technology by checking out these 24 AI penny stocks that are building real businesses around artificial intelligence. Target higher income potential by focusing on these 14 dividend stocks with yields > 3% offering yields above 3% that could complement growth names in your portfolio.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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