Bitcoin Risks Further Slide as Momentum Weakens Below Key Support

Decrypt03:20

In brief Bitcoin is holding above the $74,000 level, but analysts say momentum remains fragile and downside risks persist. QCP Capital is warning a break below could deepen losses, while relief likely...

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It remains down 1.7% on the day to $76,400, according to CoinGecko data.Outside of crypto, the same caution flagged by QCP is being echoed.Michael Burry, best known for his role in The Big Short, flagged tightening liquidity conditions and renewed fragility across risk assets, warning that recent moves reflect structural pressure.\"Sickening scenarios have now come within reach,\" Burry said as cited by Business Insider, outlining three other consequences in particular he believed were possible if bitcoin continued its free-fall.Burry noted a slide below $70,000 for Bitcoin could force heavy losses across those institutions holding the crypto, tighten capital access for Strategy, and prompt more aggressive risk management, while deeper moves approaching $60,000 could trigger a crisis for Michael Saylor’s firm.A drop toward $50,000 could push Bitcoin miners into bankruptcy, unleash forced selling of reserves, and spill over into severe dislocations in tokenized and physical metals markets, the analyst said.\"Tokenized metals futures would collapse into a black hole with no buyer. Physical metals may break from the trend on safe haven demand,\" Burry warned.Converging factorsQCP’s outlook “aligns with what we’re seeing in market structure,” Trantor, who leads Linea-based decentralized exchange Etherex, told Decrypt.“Centralized exchanges (CEX) remain dominant holders, while leveraged traders continue to amplify short-term volatility as they push prices in both directions.” Until such time leverage becomes “meaningfully flushed from the system and spot buyers regain control,” Bitcoin would likely “remain stuck in a regime of chop, uncertainty, and persistent downside anxiety,” he explained. Still, in the near term, easing “liquidity conditions, cheaper money, and a more certain global environment” is “capable of changing sentiment decisively,” he added.“Consensus trades have a habit of persisting far longer than expected until they don’t. When positioning, sentiment, and narrative become too one-sided, the conditions for reversal quietly begin to form,” Trantor said.Macro risk is believed to “remain the predominant factor” at this point, Siwon Huh, researcher at crypto analytics firm Four Pillars, told Decrypt.“With respect to macro risk, the uncertainty following Kevin Warsh's nomination has emerged as a key driver. Until his stance on interest rates and quantitative easing is clearly articulated, volatility stemming from this ambiguity is unlikely to subside,” Huh said.There’s also a range of “destabilizing factors,” he said, pointing to “the risk of military conflict with Iran, a sharp decline in precious metals, and elevated risk in AI-related equities.”These factors “collectively suggest that conditions are not yet conducive to a rotation of liquidity into Bitcoin,” he noted.Let's get technicalOn the technical side, Bitcoin's current price level at around $74,000 “constitutes a critically important psychological support zone,” Huh explained.“This level not only represents the 2025 cycle low but also corresponds to Strategy's average cost basis. Should this support level be breached, a further sharp decline accompanied by institutional net outflows would become increasingly probable,” he said.That view is also reflected in forward-looking signals for prediction markets, where positioning and probabilities suggest downside risk remains firmly in play.“Prediction markets are currently implying close to a coin-flip probability of trading below $55k by 2026, alongside roughly 78% confidence in a move toward the $65k range,” Tom Chalmers, founder and CEO of prediction market protocol functionSPACE, told Decrypt.The trend points to a “market pricing fragility,” Chalmers said.Because prediction markets “aggregate views across traders with very different models and time horizons,” it tends to “produce a cleaner signal,” he said.“Right now, that signal looks consistent with a momentum-driven regime, where positioning and technical damage matter more than fresh macro information,” he said, reinforcing views from Huh and Trantor that conviction remains weak and downside risks unresolved.Users of Myriad Markets, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, have pivoted bearish, with 74% now expecting Bitcoin to hit $69,000 instead of $100,000, marking a 44% leap from January 30th’s reading of 30%.A broader crypto market repricing could be underway “once forced selling has cleared and participants are willing to underwrite risk again with real capital,” Chalmers said. “Until those probabilities stabilise at higher levels, the market is still signalling that downside scenarios remain materially in play.”Daily Debrief NewsletterStart every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.Your EmailGet it!Get it!","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2608223335","isCrawlerRequest":true}