Ingredion (INGR) Margin Stability And TTM EPS Base Test Bearish Earnings Narratives

Simply Wall St.02-04 13:32

Ingredion (INGR) has put fresh numbers on the table for FY 2025, with Q3 revenue at US$1,816 million and basic EPS of US$2.66, giving investors a clear read on how recent trading is flowing through to...

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Over the past few quarters, the company has seen revenue move between US$1,800 million and US$1,878 million, while quarterly EPS ranged from about US$1.46 to just over US$3.05. This sets a useful context for gauging how consistent the current run rate looks. With trailing net...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":["earning"],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"TTM":"塔塔汽车","INGR":"宜瑞安"},"translate_title":"Ingredion(INGR)利润率稳定性和TTM EPS基础测试看跌盈利叙述","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TTM":1.5,"INGR":1.5},"content_text":"Ingredion (INGR) has put fresh numbers on the table for FY 2025, with Q3 revenue at US$1,816 million and basic EPS of US$2.66, giving investors a clear read on how recent trading is flowing through to the bottom line. Over the past few quarters, the company has seen revenue move between US$1,800 million and US$1,878 million, while quarterly EPS ranged from about US$1.46 to just over US$3.05. This sets a useful context for gauging how consistent the current run rate looks. With trailing net profit margins sitting around 9.1%, the latest results point to a business where the key question is how durable those margins prove to be. See our full analysis for Ingredion. With the headline figures in place, the next step is to see how these results line up against the widely followed narratives around Ingredion's growth, risks, and long term earnings power, and where the data starts to challenge those views. Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives NYSE:INGR Earnings & Revenue History as at Feb 2026 AdvertisementNet Income Holds Around US$170 Million  Ingredion booked net income of US$171 million in Q3 2025, compared with US$196 million in Q2 2025 and US$197 million in Q1 2025, with trailing 12 month net income at US$659 million on US$7.3b of revenue and a 9.1% net margin. What stands out against a more cautious view is that, even with forecasts calling for earnings to decline about 1.6% per year and revenue growth of around 0.6% annually, the trailing 12 month margin is still 9.1%, slightly above last year’s 9.0%. This means:\n     Critics highlight the recent one year earnings decline, yet the trailing 12 month net income of US$659 million is not far from the prior readings of US$676 million and US$683 million over the last few quarters. Bears argue that a slower top line outlook will squeeze profitability, but the margin data so far aligns more with the earlier five year annualized earnings growth of 25.5% than with a rapid deterioration in profits.    Trailing EPS Above US$10 Despite Recent Soft Patch  On a trailing 12 month basis, EPS sits at US$10.20 as of Q3 2025, compared with US$10.42 at Q2 2025 and US$9.63 at Q1 2025, even though quarterly EPS moved from just over US$3.05 in Q1 2025 to US$2.66 in Q3 2025. Supporters of a more optimistic take point out that a five year annualized earnings growth rate of 25.5% alongside trailing EPS above US$10.00 gives a solid earnings base. However, that view has to sit next to forecasts for roughly 1.6% annual EPS declines, which creates a clear tension:\n     On one hand, the trailing data shows EPS comfortably above the US$9.88 and US$9.93 readings seen in earlier periods, which heavily supports the bullish case that the business has produced high quality profits over time. On the other hand, the expectation of declining earnings over the next three years directly challenges the idea that past growth rates can be relied on, so bulls have to reconcile strong historical compounding with a softer outlook.    Have recent EPS swings changed the real story behind Ingredion’s growth and income case, or just reset expectations for the next few years? 📊 Read the full Ingredion Consensus Narrative. P/E Of 11.6x And DCF Fair Value Gap  The shares trade on a trailing P/E of 11.6x at a market price of US$120.41, compared with a peer average of 34.5x, a US Food industry average of 21.1x, and a DCF fair value of about US$289.45, while investors also collect a 2.72% dividend yield. Market watchers weighing a more cautious stance point to forecasts for modest 0.6% revenue growth and earnings declines as a reason the stock could stay on a lower multiple. Yet the current 11.6x P/E and the large gap between US$120.41 and the US$289.45 DCF fair value raise questions about how much of that risk is already reflected:\n     What is surprising is that the stock price sits materially below the DCF fair value even though trailing margins and net income remain relatively steady, which can be read as the valuation heavily reflecting concerns about future growth rather than current profitability. At the same time, the 2.72% dividend yield and low P/E look attractive next to peers and the broader industry, yet the forecast earnings decline keeps the risk side of the profile in focus for anyone considering whether that discount is justified.     Next Steps Don't just look at this quarter; the real story is in the long-term trend. We've done an in-depth analysis on Ingredion's growth and its valuation to see if today's price is a bargain. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio now so you don't miss the next big move. See What Else Is Out There Ingredion’s forecasts for roughly 1.6% annual EPS declines and modest 0.6% revenue growth sit uncomfortably against its historical earnings expansion. If you prefer companies with clearer earnings momentum, check out CTA_SCREENER_LARGE_CAP_HIGH_GROWTH_POTENTIAL to focus on larger names that analysts expect to deliver stronger growth ahead.  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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