Bunge forecasts profit below estimates as trade, biofuel uncertainty take toll

Updates shares in paragraph 3, adds analyst quote in paragraph 4

By Karl Plume and Pooja Menon

Feb 4 (Reuters) - Bunge Global BG.N forecast lower-than-expected profit in 2026 on Wednesday as the world's largest oilseed processor navigates commodity market volatility and tight margins, both of which took a toll on its earnings last year.

Missouri-based Bunge reported its weakest fourth quarter and lowest annual adjusted profit since 2019, although both topped consensus analysts' estimates.

Shares in Bunge, which have gained 30% since the start of the year, rose 2.3% on the earnings beat and an outlook that some analysts characterized as a "conservative" starting point that will improve later in the year when U.S. policies to boost biofuel use are likely to be finalized.

"Investors are likely taking the outlook with a grain of salt, as it does not factor in the potential improvement in crush margins once the Renewable Fuel Standard is finalized with updated biofuel blending requirements," said Arun Sundaram, senior equity analyst at CFRA Research.

A global grains glut has weighed on crop prices, thinned processing margins and eroded profitability in the agribusiness sector, affecting Bunge and peers such as Cargill and ADM ADM.N, which on Tuesday forecast a downbeat 2026 outlook.

BIOFUEL POLICY UNCERTAINTIES

Trade turmoil triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff wars and uncertainty over biofuels policies dragged on Bunge's earnings, as customers became more cautious and reluctant to book deals beyond the near term.

"Externally, the environment remains complex, with limited forward visibility, geopolitical tensions, evolving trade flows and uncertainty around biofuel policy, particularly in the U.S.," Bunge CEO Greg Heckman said.

Bunge posted adjusted earnings of $1.99 per share for the quarter ended December 31, down from $2.13 a year earlier, but above the consensus estimate of $1.81, data compiled by LSEG showed. Full-year 2025 adjusted profit fell to $7.57 a share, from $9.19 a year earlier, but was above a $7.40 consensus estimate.

The company's expanded grain-handling and processing capacity following its merger with Viterra in mid-2025 boosted volumes and revenue.

The U.S. Treasury Department on Tuesday published proposed rules on how biofuel makers can access larger tax credits. These would incentivize use of feedstocks from North American oilseed crops such as soy and canola, and include tweaks to the methodology for calculating the carbon intensity of feedstocks.

The market is awaiting final rules on biofuel blending quotas, expected next month. Traders and analysts expect quotas to stay close to an initial proposal, boosting volumes while dropping a plan to penalize imports of renewable fuels and feedstocks.

(Reporting by Karl Plume in Chicago and Pooja Menon in Bengaluru; Editing by Sahal Muhammed, Kirsten Donovan, David Holmes, Alexander Smith, Rod Nickel)

((karl.plume@thomsonreuters.com; +1 313 484 5285))