A Look At Orchid Island Capital (ORC) Valuation After Recent Choppy Trading And Mixed Returns

Simply Wall St.02-02 05:20

AdvertisementWhy Orchid Island Capital is on investors' radar today Orchid Island Capital (ORC) has drawn fresh attention after recent trading left the mortgage REIT at a last close of US$7.80, with ...

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However, a 30 day share price return of 5.83% and a 1 year total...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","ORC":"Orchid Island Capital Inc.","IE00BN8TJ469.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","BK4110":"抵押房地产投资信托"},"translate_title":"近期交易波动和回报好坏参半后兰屿资本(ORC)估值一览","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ORC":1.5},"content_text":"AdvertisementWhy Orchid Island Capital is on investors' radar today Orchid Island Capital (ORC) has drawn fresh attention after recent trading left the mortgage REIT at a last close of US$7.80, with returns mixed across the past week, month and past 3 months. See our latest analysis for Orchid Island Capital. Recent trading has been choppy, with a 1 day share price return of a 5.68% decline and a 7 day share price return of a 4.41% decline. However, a 30 day share price return of 5.83% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 13.66% suggest momentum has been improving over a longer stretch, even as the 5 year total shareholder return of a 31.33% decline shows how mixed the longer term picture has been. If you are comparing Orchid Island Capital with other financial names, it could be a good moment to broaden your research and check out fast growing stocks with high insider ownership. With Orchid Island Capital trading near its recent US$7.80 level and sitting slightly above analyst targets, are you looking at a stock the market is overlooking, or is the current price already reflecting future growth? Most Popular Narrative: 2.5% Undervalued Compared with the last close at $7.80, the most followed narrative points to a fair value of $8.00, built on a detailed earnings and margin story.  The confluence of historically wide mortgage spreads over swaps (circa 200 bps on production coupons) and low market volatility presents a rare opportunity for Orchid Island Capital to acquire high-carry, attractively priced assets and hedge effectively, positioning the company for margin expansion and sustained earnings growth as spreads eventually normalize.  Read the complete narrative. Curious what kind of revenue ramp and margin profile justify that $8.00 figure at an 11.05% discount rate? The core narrative leans on sharp earnings growth, a very different future profit margin, and a much lower assumed P/E than today. The full breakdown shows how those moving parts fit together. Result: Fair Value of $8.00 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this hinges on calmer rates and supportive RMBS pricing. Sustained interest rate volatility or further equity raises could quickly challenge that earnings and margin story. Find out about the key risks to this Orchid Island Capital narrative.  Build Your Own Orchid Island Capital Narrative If you are not on board with this narrative, or simply want to stress test the assumptions against your own view, you can build a custom thesis in just a few minutes using Do it your way. A great starting point for your Orchid Island Capital research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? Do not stop at a single mortgage REIT when the broader market is full of different setups that might match your risk tolerance and income goals.  Hunt for potential bargain entries by scanning these 875 undervalued stocks based on cash flows where prices and fundamentals can line up in interesting ways. Tap into the fast evolving world of digital assets with these 18 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks and see which listed names fit your comfort level. Prioritise income by screening for these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that may suit a portfolio focused on regular cash returns.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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