Assessing Air New Zealand (NZSE:AIR) Valuation After Recent Flight Disruptions And Ongoing Investor Caution

Simply Wall St.02-01

Air New Zealand (NZSE:AIR) is in focus after a wave of flight delays across Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, and Perth disrupted regional and long haul schedules and put operational resilience and ...

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See our latest analysis for Air New Zealand. At a share price of NZ$0.58, Air New Zealand has seen its 1 day share price return of 0.87% contrast with a 90 day share price return decline of 2.52% and a 1 year total shareholder return decline of 4.06%. This suggests recent operational hiccups are feeding into a longer trend of softer investor confidence rather than sparking fresh momentum. If these disruptions have you reassessing airline risk, it can help to widen the lens and look at aerospace and defense stocks as a broader way to compare aviation related opportunities. With Air New Zealand trading at NZ$0.58, some metrics point to a discount to analyst targets and intrinsic value. The key question for you is whether this reflects an undervalued airline or a market that is already pricing in future growth. AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 12% Undervalued With Air New Zealand last closing at NZ$0.58 against a narrative fair value of NZ$0.66, the current price sits below what this widely followed view considers reasonable, making the underlying assumptions worth a closer look.  The analysts have a consensus price target of NZ$0.688 for Air New Zealand based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of NZ$0.9, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just NZ$0.55.  Read the complete narrative. Want to see what is sitting behind that fair value gap? The narrative leans on steady revenue expansion, margin uplift and a re rated profit multiple. Curious which assumptions really move the model at an 11.2% discount rate and why earnings power in the next few years matters so much here? Result: Fair Value of NZ$0.66 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this hinges on engine availability and cost inflation risks, as prolonged capacity constraints or higher charges could quickly erode the margin gains analysts are pencilling in. Find out about the key risks to this Air New Zealand narrative.  Build Your Own Air New Zealand Narrative If the market view here does not quite fit your own take, you can weigh the same data, test different assumptions and build a custom thesis in just a few minutes, then Do it your way. A great starting point for your Air New Zealand research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If Air New Zealand is only one piece of your watchlist, now is the time to broaden your opportunity set and pressure test your next move.  Spot potential turnaround candidates by scanning these 3528 penny stocks with strong financials, where smaller companies can sometimes offer outsized upside and unique business stories. Zero in on future focused themes with these 24 AI penny stocks and see which names are tied to real earnings potential rather than just hype. Target value led opportunities through these 875 undervalued stocks based on cash flows so you do not miss stocks that current prices may not fully reflect.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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