The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
2136 ET - Taiwan's real GDP growth forecasts for 2026-2027 is raised by Citi to 5.5% and 4.0% from 3% and 1.5%, respectively. "The AI story has raised Taiwan's GDP growth significantly above historical average of the past 25 years of 4%," Citi economist Adrienne Lui says. Taiwan's economy grew 8.63% in 2025, the fastest pace in 15 years. Strong export orders should drive its economic growth momentum into 1H this year, she says in a research note. The U.S.-Taiwan trade deal has removed significant downside risks, enhancing market access for Taiwanese exporters, encouraging more capex and U.S. foreign direct investment into Taiwan, Lui says.(sherry.qin@wsj.com)
2128 ET - The Singapore dollar strengthens slightly against its U.S. counterpart in Asian trading due to increased prospects for Fed rate cuts. Kevin Warsh, nominated by President Trump as the next Fed chair, has been more supportive of rate cuts, MUFG Bank's Michael Wan says in a report. The senior currency analyst says Warsh thinks rates can be cut without causing undue inflation as there has been a productivity boom in the U.S. thanks to artificial intelligence. MUFG Bank continues to favor currencies of electronics-exporting countries in Asia. USD/SGD is 0.1% lower at 1.2709. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
2028 ET - South Korea's chip-led exports are likely to maintain strong growth momentum in the first half of 2026, Barclays economist Bum Ki Son writes in a note. The country's tech exports are boosted by a substantial increase in contract prices for semiconductors, with the average chip prices climbing 30%-40% on-quarter in 1Q, Son says. He expects the chip contract prices to rise further into 2Q on expectations of production capacity constraints and supply shortages that could last until the end of 2026. Accordingly, the semiconductor exports momentum will remain strong in 1H 2026, he adds. (kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com)
1950 ET - Asian currencies are mixed against the dollar as traders digest Kevin Warsh's nomination as the next Fed Chair by President Trump last Friday. Based on the USD's recent movements, the markets seem to interpret Warsh's nomination as a stabilizing force amid uncertainties over Fed independence and the global monetary system, Commerzbank Research analysts say in a research report. However, Warsh's nomination will still need approval by the U.S. Senate, the analysts note. USD/JPY edges 0.1% higher to 155.15, USD/KRW is steady at 1,451.30, and AUD/USD is 0.2% higher at 0.6966, FactSet data show.(ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
1927 ET - JGBs fall in price terms in early Tokyo trade amid prospects that Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party may win more seats in the Lower-House election to be held on Feb. 8. A Kyodo News poll showed Sunday that the LDP has extended its lead from last week, with 36.1% supporting the LDP, up by 6.9 percentage points. Japanese PM Takaichi's move to call a snap election is aimed at strengthening her grip on power and could pave the way for more aggressive economic measures and expanded fiscal spending. The yield on five-year JGBs rises 2.5 bps to 1.680%. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
1923 ET - The Reserve Bank of Australia looks set to hike interest rates on Tuesday, says Moody's Analytics in a note. The central bank is expected to abandon its easing cycle and take the cash rate up 25 bps to 3.85% after December's much hotter-than-expected labor market and inflation data, it reckons. While the rate increase may slow near-term consumer confidence, housing-sensitive spending, and discretionary services, the trade-off will be a higher risks to growth as inflation cools, it says. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)
1911 ET - South Korea's accelerating semiconductor export growth prompts Citigroup to raise its GDP growth forecasts for the country by 0.2 percentage point to 2.4% for 2026 and 2.0% for 2027. Citi economist Jin-Wook Kim expects South Korean chip exports to surge around 85% in 2026, following 2025's estimated 22% rise, driven by the global artificial-intelligence capex cycle. The country's current-account surplus should remain strong through 2026 on solid semiconductor exports and soft energy prices, he says. He maintains his forecast for the Bank of Korea to keep the policy rate unchanged at 2.50% for 2026-2027. (kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com)
1911 ET - Japanese stocks are higher as a weaker yen supports hopes for corporate earnings. Auto and pharmaceutical stocks are leading gains. Toyota Motor is up 2.9% and drugmaker Shionogi is 2.3% higher. USD/JPY is at 154.92, up from 153.89 as of Friday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are closely watching quarterly results, with Daiwa Securities Group and Murata Manufacturing set to release their earnings later Monday. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's economic plans are also in focus ahead of the general election on Feb. 8. The Nikkei Stock Average is up 0.4% at 53534.49. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)
1847 ET - Japanese stocks may rise as a weaker yen supports hopes for domestic earnings. Nikkei futures areup 0.7% at 53625 on the SGX. USD/JPY is at 155.09, compared with 153.89 as of Friday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on quarterly earnings. Daiwa Securities Group and Murata Manufacturing are scheduled to report their results later Monday. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's economic plans are also being closely watched ahead of the general election on Feb. 8. The Nikkei Stock Average fell 0.1% to 53322.85 on Friday. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com)
0824 ET - The bond market isn't expected to get a boost from the India budget, with yields likely to rise in the near-term, says Radhika Rao at DBS. "Bond markets are likely to eye the scale of gross borrowings with trepidation," the senior economist says in a note. She notes that the FY27 gross borrowing target has been set at a record high of INR17.2 trillion, compared with DBS's forecast ofINR16.5 trillion and INR15.5 trillion in FY26. The Reserve Bank of India has been amongst the bigger buyers of government securities in the past year, and this is likely to continue until the domestic players, led by banks, make a comeback to better balance the supply-demand mix, she adds. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)
0759 ET - The proposed increase in capital expenditure in India's budget at a time when tax revenues are undershooting is a concern, says Saurabh Mukherjea at Marcellus Investment Managers. "Funding higher capex through increased borrowing risks tightening financial conditions by pushing up bond yields and the economy's cost of capital," says the Co-Founder & CIO in an email. However, the proposed increase in Securities Transaction Tax on futures is a necessary corrective, he says. Over the past few years, speculative derivatives trading activity has destroyed large amounts of household capital, and this move should help redirect savings towards consumption and productive investment, he adds. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)
0335 ET - The Indian budget's proposal to raise the Securities Transaction Tax on futures to 0.05% from 0.02% is negative and poses headwinds for capital-market-linked stocks, says Raj Gaikar at Samco Securities. Higher transaction costs are likely to reduce trading volumes, dampen short-term momentum, and lower profitability for active market participants, the research analyst says in an email. Foreign institutional investment participation in derivatives may also moderate, impacting overall liquidity. This can create a cascading effect on revenue streams of broking companies, exchanges, and depositories, which are closely linked to market turnover, Gaikar adds. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 01, 2026 21:36 ET (02:36 GMT)
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