A Look At Allegiant Travel (ALGT) Valuation After December Traffic Growth And Slight Load Factor Softness

Simply Wall St.02-02 21:12

Allegiant Travel (ALGT) just released its December 2025 traffic report, with passenger counts, available seat miles and revenue passenger miles all above the prior year, while the annual load factor ...

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In contrast, the 1 year total shareholder return of a 9.39% decline shows longer term holders have had a tougher run, which suggests recent momentum is...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4500":"航空公司","ALGT":"忠诚旅游","BK4008":"航空公司"},"translate_title":"12月客流量增长和客座率小幅疲软后Allegiant Travel(ALGT)估值一览","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ALGT":1.5},"content_text":"Allegiant Travel (ALGT) just released its December 2025 traffic report, with passenger counts, available seat miles and revenue passenger miles all above the prior year, while the annual load factor eased slightly. See our latest analysis for Allegiant Travel. The latest traffic report arrives after a sharp 52.73% 90 day share price return. In contrast, the 1 year total shareholder return of a 9.39% decline shows longer term holders have had a tougher run, which suggests recent momentum is building off a weaker base. If Allegiant’s recent move has you thinking about what else is on the radar, it could be a good moment to look across aerospace and defense stocks for other transportation related ideas. With traffic metrics up on last year, a share price that has surged 52.73% in 90 days and an intrinsic value estimate sitting below the current US$88.63 price, is Allegiant still undervalued or is the market already pricing in future growth? AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 10.8% Undervalued At a last close of $88.63 versus a narrative fair value of $99.40, Allegiant Travel is framed as modestly undervalued, with that view built on specific growth and margin assumptions.  Recent and ongoing fleet modernization, specifically ramping up MAX aircraft to 20% of available seat miles by 2026 and retiring older, less efficient Airbus jets, should reduce fuel and maintenance costs. This may drive down CASM and improve net margins as operational efficiency and gauge increase, especially as utilization is strategically shifted toward peak periods.  Read the complete narrative. Want to see what kind of revenue lift, margin rebuild and future earnings multiple are baked into that $99.40 figure? The full narrative lays out the timelines, cash flow path and profitability shift that need to line up for this valuation to hold. Result: Fair Value of $99.40 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, you still need to weigh up risks such as soft domestic leisure demand and higher labor or fleet transition costs, which could pressure the upbeat valuation story. Find out about the key risks to this Allegiant Travel narrative. Another Angle On Allegiant’s Valuation Our DCF model points to a future cash flow value of about $1,042.76 per share, compared with the recent $88.63 price and the $99.40 narrative fair value. That is a very large gap, so the question is whether the cash flow path needed to justify it feels realistic to you. Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. ALGT Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026 Build Your Own Allegiant Travel Narrative If the assumptions here do not quite fit how you see Allegiant, you can pull up the same data, stress test your own expectations and Do it your way in just a few minutes. A great starting point for your Allegiant Travel research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If Allegiant has caught your attention, do not stop there. Line up a few more candidates side by side so you are not relying on a single story.  Tap into income potential by scanning these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that might suit a portfolio focused on regular cash returns. Spot growth themes early by checking out these 24 AI penny stocks that are tied to artificial intelligence trends across different industries. Zero in on value by reviewing these 887 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that currently trade below what their cash flows may imply.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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