Assessing Progressive (PGR) Valuation After Earnings Beat And CFO Transition

Simply Wall St.02-01

AdvertisementEarnings beat and CFO transition put Progressive (PGR) in focus Progressive (PGR) is back on investors’ radar after reporting quarterly and full year 2025 results that surpassed analyst ...

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See our latest analysis for Progressive. Despite the recent earnings beat and CFO transition news, the share price has been relatively steady, with a 90 day share price return of 2.11% and a 5 year total shareholder return of 166.09%. This suggests that longer term momentum has been stronger than the more muted recent moves. If the insurance story has your attention, it can be a good moment to broaden your watchlist with solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (None results). With revenue of US$87.7b, net income of US$11.3b and the shares roughly 18% below the average analyst target, along with an indicated intrinsic discount, is Progressive quietly undervalued or are markets already pricing in future growth? Most Popular Narrative: 16.5% Undervalued The most followed narrative puts Progressive’s fair value at $248.98 versus the last close of $208. That gap rests on some specific growth and margin assumptions.  Progressive's scale, superior data analytics, and rapid pricing response mechanisms position the company to win disproportionate market share as technology-driven direct-to-consumer distribution continues to outpace traditional agents; this directly supports outperformance in net premiums written and long-term earnings growth.  Read the complete narrative. Want to see what kind of revenue climb and margin reset that view is built on? The narrative leans on detailed earnings paths and a richer future multiple. Curious which assumptions really move that $248.98 fair value? Result: Fair Value of $248.98 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, rising claim costs that are outpacing pricing, along with tougher competition from insurers and new entrants, could pressure margins and challenge the case for a richer future P/E. Find out about the key risks to this Progressive narrative.  Build Your Own Progressive Narrative If you see the story differently, or prefer to weigh the numbers yourself, you can build a custom view in minutes with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Progressive research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If Progressive has sharpened your focus, do not stop there. Use the screener to surface fresh ideas that fit your style before the crowd catches on.  Spot potential value plays by zeroing in on these 875 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that stand out on cash flow metrics. Tap into emerging tech trends with these 24 AI penny stocks that are tied to artificial intelligence themes. Strengthen your income watchlist through these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3% offering yields above 3%.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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