Assessing ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR) Valuation After Mixed Returns And Slight Premium To Fair Value

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AdvertisementARMOUR Residential REIT overview and recent share performance ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR) has drawn fresh attention following recent price moves, with the stock down about 5% over the ...

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This gives investors several time frames to compare.\nSee our latest analysis for...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK6142":"多户式住宅房地产信托","ARR":"ARMOUR住宅房地产公司","CFA.SI":"NikkoAM-STC Asia REIT","REIT":"ALPS Active REIT ETF","BK7095":"多种金属与采矿","BK4110":"抵押房地产投资信托","ARR.AU":"American Rare Earths Ltd","8C8U.SI":"Cent Accom REIT"},"translate_title":"在混合回报和公允价值小幅溢价后评估ARMOUR Residential REIT(ARR)估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"REIT":1.5,"ARR":1.5,"CFA.SI":1.5,"ARR.AU":1.5,"8C8U.SI":1.5},"content_text":"AdvertisementARMOUR Residential REIT overview and recent share performance ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR) has drawn fresh attention following recent price moves, with the stock down about 5% over the past week and past month, but up roughly 6% over the past 3 months. Over a longer horizon, total return data is mixed, with a gain of about 10% over the past year set against negative total returns over the past 3 and 5 years. This gives investors several time frames to compare. See our latest analysis for ARMOUR Residential REIT. With the share price at about $17.40 and a recent 30 day share price return of roughly a 4% decline set against a 90 day share price return of about a 6% gain, recent momentum looks tentative compared with the 1 year total shareholder return of around 10% and weaker multi year total shareholder returns. If ARMOUR Residential REIT’s recent moves have you reassessing income focused ideas, it could be a good moment to broaden your watchlist with pharma stocks with solid dividends. With ARMOUR Residential REIT posting a 10% 1 year total return but weaker 3 and 5 year results, and trading near $17.40, you have to ask: is there real value left here, or is the market already pricing in the road ahead? Most Popular Narrative: 2.4% Overvalued At a last close of $17.40 versus a narrative fair value of $17.00, the current price sits slightly above what the most followed storyline suggests ARMOUR Residential REIT is worth, and that view hinges heavily on aggressive growth assumptions.  • Analysts are assuming ARMOUR Residential REIT's revenue will grow by 91.9% annually over the next 3 years.        \n•  Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 45.0% today to 170.7% in 3 years time.          Read the complete narrative. Those numbers sketch a bold picture: rapid revenue expansion and profit margins moving to levels more often linked with very asset light models. Curious what earnings path and valuation multiple are needed to make that fair value hold together? Result: Fair Value of $17.00 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, if Federal Reserve easing stalls or Agency MBS spreads widen, funding costs and book value pressure could quickly challenge the optimistic growth and margin story. Find out about the key risks to this ARMOUR Residential REIT narrative.  Build Your Own ARMOUR Residential REIT Narrative If this storyline does not quite fit your view and you would rather work from the raw numbers yourself, you can build a custom thesis in just a few minutes with Do it your way. A great starting point for your ARMOUR Residential REIT research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If ARMOUR Residential REIT has you thinking differently about income and value, do not stop here. Broaden your opportunity set with fresh stock ideas tailored to your style.  Spot potential value gaps by reviewing these 875 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that are priced below what their cash flows might justify. Target income potential by scanning these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that currently offer yields above 3%. Position yourself early in emerging themes by checking out these 18 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks tied to cryptocurrency and blockchain trends.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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