By Nate Wolf
Robinhood Markets was the worst performer in the S&P 500 on Monday as declining cryptocurrency prices and a projected decline in prediction markets volume weighed on the brokerage stock.
Shares fell 8.4% to $91.13. The stock has declined 19% in 2026, though sellers are likely taking in big profits after its 200% jump last year.
A sputtering crypto market appeared to be one of the culprits on Monday. Bitcoin hit a 10-month low of $74,553 in the early morning hours, as Kevin Warsh's nomination to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve rankled digital-asset traders.
Robinhood offers trading in more than 50 crypto tokens so falling crypto prices and a slowdown in trading volume have genuine implications for the company. Its stock historically has a strong correlation with the value of Bitcoin.
The end of football season is another, perhaps more surprising reason that Robinhood's stock has faltered in recent weeks, according to analysts at Piper Sandler.
Robinhood's prediction markets offering, which allows traders to wager on sports, has emerged as the fastest-growing product line by revenue in the company's history. Football has comprised almost half of total volume on Kalshi, Robinhood's main prediction markets partner, since August.
"With the season coming to a close this Sunday, many investors wonder how big a hole this could blow in HOOD's prediction revenues," the Piper Sandler team wrote in a research note Monday.
Robinhood's recent pullback hasn't changed Piper Sandler's long-term thesis, though. The firm reiterated an Overweight rating and a $155 price target for Robinhood stock, arguing the company's crypto and prediction markets businesses could both get a jolt in the months ahead.
The Senate Agriculture Committee advanced the crypto market structure bill known as the CLARITY Act last week, putting the legislation back on track after Coinbase Global withdrew its support earlier in January. The act could boost blockchain adoption and allow Robinhood to scale its token offering, Piper Sandler said.
On the prediction markets side, the start of the winter Olympics this month and the NCAA basketball tournament in March should help offset the loss of football. Further out, the 2026 FIFA World Cup and 2026 midterm elections will likely fuel trading volume later in the year, Piper Sandler said. Clarity on regulation from new Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Michael Selig should also help.
All told, Piper Sandler is standing by its pick.
"Long term, we continue to believe HOOD is the best way to play secular growth in retail trading and the closest FinTech platform we've seen to achieving 'super app' status," the analysts wrote.
Write to Nate Wolf at nate.wolf@barrons.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 02, 2026 11:00 ET (16:00 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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