Assessing CVR Energy (CVI) Valuation After US$1b Refinancing Reshapes Its Debt Profile

Simply Wall St.02-03

CVR Energy (CVI) has priced a US$1b private placement of senior unsecured notes maturing in 2031 and 2034, with proceeds earmarked to refinance its term loan and redeem existing 2028 and 2029 notes. ...

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See our latest analysis for CVR Energy. The refinancing news comes after a tough few months for the share price, with a 90 day share price return of a 37.7% decline and a 30 day share price return of a 9.7% decline, even though the 1 year total shareholder return is 20.2% and the 5 year total shareholder return is around 2.4x. This suggests long term holders have still seen meaningful gains while recent momentum has been weak. If this kind of balance sheet reshaping has your attention, it may be a good moment to widen your search and look at aerospace and defense stocks as another pocket of opportunity. With the stock down sharply over 3 months, yet still showing a 1 year total return above 20% and trading below the average analyst price target, you have to ask: is this a reset worth considering, or is the market already looking through to future growth? AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 17.8% Undervalued At a last close of $22.74 versus a narrative fair value of about $27.67, the current pricing sits below what the most followed thesis implies.  With no additional turnarounds planned until 2027, CVR Energy can expect increased throughput and efficiency, positively impacting revenue and potentially improving net margins by reducing operational interruptions.  Read the complete narrative. Want to see what kind of revenue profile and margin path needs to line up with that fair value? The narrative leans heavily on throughput, pricing and a punchy earnings multiple. Curious how those ingredients combine into a premium valuation story? Result: Fair Value of $27.67 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, you still need to weigh refinery downtime and regulatory swings around the Renewable Fuel Standard and RIN costs, which could pressure margins and cash generation. Find out about the key risks to this CVR Energy narrative.  Build Your Own CVR Energy Narrative If you see the numbers differently, or prefer to test the assumptions yourself, you can shape a custom thesis in minutes with Do it your way. A great starting point for your CVR Energy research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If you are serious about building a stronger watchlist, do not stop at one stock. Use the screener to compare fresh ideas before the crowd catches on.  Spot potential bargains early by filtering for companies that look attractively priced on cash flows using these 889 undervalued stocks based on cash flows as a starting point. Target income focused opportunities by scanning for consistent payers through these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3% and see which yields stand out to you. Back cutting edge themes by hunting for next wave projects in digital assets with these 18 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks before they sit on everyone else's radar.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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