A Look At Rithm Capital (RITM) Valuation As UBS Coverage And Deals Shape Expectations For Q4 Earnings

Simply Wall St.02-01

Interest around Rithm Capital (RITM) has picked up as investors look ahead to its fourth quarter 2025 results, expected revenue and earnings pressure in key segments, and fresh analyst coverage tied ...

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See our latest analysis for Rithm Capital. Rithm Capital’s recent 1 day share price return of 8.22% decline and 7 day share price return of 7.13% decline, alongside heavier trading and fresh UBS coverage tied to the Paramount Group and Crestline deals, contrast with a 1 year total shareholder return of 3.94% and a 5 year total shareholder return of 77.50%. This suggests shorter term momentum has cooled while longer term holders have still seen meaningful gains. If Rithm’s recent swings have you reassessing your watchlist, this could be a good moment to broaden your search and check out fast growing stocks with high insider ownership. With Rithm trading at a discount to analyst targets and carrying a high intrinsic value score, yet facing pressure on near term earnings, should you view current levels as a mispricing or conclude that the market already reflects the future growth story? AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 25% Undervalued The most followed narrative sees Rithm Capital’s fair value at $14.50 versus a last close of $10.94, framing a clear gap the story tries to explain.  Rithm's ongoing diversification into real estate equity, single-family rentals, and private capital, alongside robust M&A activity and new fund launches, expands its addressable market and revenue sources beyond traditional mortgage servicing, lowering cyclicality risk and sustaining long-term top-line growth.  Read the complete narrative. Curious what earnings profile and margin path need to line up for that $14.50 figure to make sense? The narrative blends faster revenue growth, higher profitability and a richer fee mix into one tight set of assumptions, with the entire model tuned to a single discount rate that could materially change how you view that gap to today’s price. Result: Fair Value of $14.50 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, that story could crack if competition keeps squeezing mortgage margins, or if newer acquisitions prove harder to integrate than the models currently assume. Find out about the key risks to this Rithm Capital narrative.  Build Your Own Rithm Capital Narrative If you are not fully on board with this view or simply prefer to test the numbers yourself, you can build a custom thesis in just a few minutes with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Rithm Capital research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If Rithm has you thinking more broadly about where to put fresh capital to work, it is worth lining up a few new watchlist candidates today.  Target potential income and price appreciation by scanning these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that balance cash distributions with underlying business strength. Ride the growth of digital assets by checking out these 18 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks that are building real businesses around blockchain and related technologies. Get ahead of the next wave in medical breakthroughs by reviewing these 110 healthcare AI stocks using artificial intelligence to tackle complex healthcare problems.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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