Adds EIA storage report, latest prices
Record, but smaller-than-expected storage withdrawal reported by EIA
Waha Hub prices fall into negative territory due to pipeline constraints
LSEG projects gas demand to decrease from 159.5 bcfd to 140.7 bcfd next week
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, Feb 5 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% on Thursday on a smaller-than-expected, though record-high storage withdrawal last week when a blast of extremely cold weather boosted heating demand and cut output to a two-year low by freezing wells.
Energy traders noted prices were also down on forecasts for warmer weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration $(EIA)$ said energy firms pulled a record 360 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended January 30.
That topped the prior weekly all-time high withdrawal of 359 bcf set in January 2018, but was smaller than the 374-bcf draw analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a decline of 195 bcf during the same week last year and an average withdrawal of 190 bcf over the past five years (2021-2025). EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Gas futures for March delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 5.4 cents, or 1.6%, to $3.411 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
In the cash market, meanwhile, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian Shale in West Texas fell into negative territory for the 10th time this year, as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.
Daily Waha prices first fell below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, and 39 times in 2025.
Waha prices have averaged $1.88 per mmBtu so far this year, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and a five-year average (2021-2025) of $2.88.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND:
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has edged up to 106.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January. That figure compares with a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.
After extreme cold last week, meteorologists projected weather across the country would turn mostly warmer than normal through February 20. Temperatures in the U.S. Northeast, however, were still expected to remain below normal through mid-February.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 159.5 bcfd this week to 140.7 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.
Energy firms pulled so much gas out of storage to meet near-record demand during the Arctic blast last week that stockpiles fell from around 5% above normal for this time of year during the week ended January 23 to about 1% below normal during the week ended January 30. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants have risen to 18.4 bcfd so far in February, up from 17.8 bcfd in January. That figure compares with a monthly record high of 18.5 bcfd in December.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more low-cost U.S. gas, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Gas was trading at around $12 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and $11 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU
Week ended Jan 30 Actual | Week ended Jan 23 Actual | Year ago Jan 30 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Jan 30 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -360 | -242 | -195 | -190 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,463 | 2,823 | 2,422 | 2,490 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | -1.1% | +5.3% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.51 | 3.47 | 3.74 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 11.99 | 11.58 | 15.28 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 11.10 | 11.13 | 14.41 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System $(GFS)$ Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 369 | 383 | 407 | 415 | 413 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 5 | 6 | 14 | 5 | 4 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 374 | 389 | 421 | 420 | 417 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 98.9 | 106.8 | 107.1 | 105.6 | 97.8 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 11.9 | 10.9 | 8.8 | N/A | 9.0 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 110.9 | 117.8 | 115.8 | N/A | 106.9 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.9 | N/A | 3.5 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.9 | N/A | 5.4 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 15.3 | 18.6 | 18.4 | 15.0 | 12.6 |
U.S. Commercial | 24.6 | 20.8 | 17.1 | 15.3 | 14.6 |
U.S. Residential | 43.4 | 35.7 | 28.3 | 24.7 | 24.0 |
U.S. Power Plant | 41.5 | 39.6 | 34.1 | 32.3 | 31.8 |
U.S. Industrial | 28.2 | 27.1 | 25.5 | 24.9 | 25.2 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 5.4 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 146.8 | 132.1 | 113.5 | 106.1 | 105.2 |
Total U.S. Demand | 170.3 | 159.5 | 140.7 | N/A | 126.7 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 93 | 93 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 93 | 93 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 97 | 98 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Feb 6 | Week ended Jan 30 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Wind | 9 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
40 | 39 | 40 | 42 | 41 | |
Coal | 22 | 22 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 17 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 6.88 | 4.11 | 4.19 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 25.08 | 8.33 | 4.90 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.04 | 1.98 | 3.78 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 4.31 | 4.02 | 4.03 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 4.25 | 4.16 | 4.19 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 28.25 | 23.00 | 13.65 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.75 | 1.76 | 4.19 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | -0.12 | 0.35 | 2.76 | 1.15 | 2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.41 | 1.35 | 1.53 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 213.25 | 202.27 | 134.58 | 77.61 | 61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX | 164.69 | 92.25 | 53.89 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 26.84 | 21.69 | 67.87 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 27.38 | 19.60 | 29.05 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 27.55 | 22.50 | 25.19 | 28.44 | 53.02 |
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))
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