MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
European Central Bank and Bank of England rate decisions; Germany manufacturing orders; France industrial production index, Italy retail sales; trading updates from Shell, Maersk, BNP Paribas, BBVA, Danske Bank, ArcelorMittal, Siemens Healthineers, Vodafone, Anglo American, Volvo Car, Saab, Assa Abloy, Pandora
Opening Call:
European stock futures traded lower early Thursday. Asian stock benchmarks were down; the dollar strengthened; Treasury yields inched lower; while oil futures and gold fell.
Equities:
Stock futures point to a lower open in Europe, after declines in tech stocks intensified on Wall Street overnight.
The Nasdaq composite posted consecutive 1% declines for the first time since April's tariff chaos, as weakness spread from software into semiconductor shares and other companies linked to the infrastructure buildout for artificial intelligence.
"With valuations where they are, market reactions are going to be pretty harsh," said Jack Ablin, chief investment strategist at Cresset Capital. "Expectations right now are very, very high."
Forex:
Global central banks are taking different paths this year, a divergence that Goldman Sachs economists said will heavily impact currency markets.
Among developed economies, Goldman expects Japan, Australia and New Zealand to increase interest rates in 2026. The U.S., U.K. and Norway are projected to cut rates, while the EU, Switzerland, Sweden and Canada will likely hold steady. This policy split "forms an important input to our G10 FX views," the bank said.
Bonds:
Europe's most important central banks are likely to hold interest rates steady on Thursday. Just like the Federal Reserve, policymakers across the Atlantic are in wait-and-see mode.
The Bank of England is widely expected to maintain rates of 3.75%, having lowered them by a quarter of a point in December. Investors are all-but-certain the European Central Bank will keep borrowing costs at 2%.
"The risk in 2026 has always been skewed to further easing given the expected undershoot of the inflation target," Deutsche Bank's Chief European Economist Mark Wall said in a recent research note.
"Recent events, like the appreciation of the euro exchange rate, underline this risk," he added. "But the case for a further easing of monetary policy has not been proven yet."
Energy:
Oil slipped in the Asian trading session. The U.S. and Iran have reached an agreement to hold nuclear talks in Oman on Friday, with the White House and Iran's foreign ministry confirming the meeting. Discussions regarding the coming U.S.-Iran negotiations have eased the immediate risk premium, Citi Research's Anthony Yuen said.
However, "we and market participants remain concerned about upside risks, mainly due to U.S. actions regarding Iran and Indian purchases of Russian oil," the analyst added.
Metals:
Gold was lower, amid strength in the U.S. dollar. A stronger dollar tends to act as a headwind for precious metals, said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst for global macro at Forex.com.
"If this move turns out to be more than a short-lived bounce, it could continue to weigh on gold prices," the analyst said. The market's focus now shifts to the delayed official U.S. jobs report, Razaqzada added. The January jobs report, originally scheduled for Friday, will now be published on Wednesday.
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Copper was down in early Asian trading. Expectations for higher supply are pressuring prices, ANZ research analysts said.
China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has forecast that the country's refined copper output is likely to rise by about 5% this year, following a 10% surge last year, the analysts noted. Inventories at the London Metal Exchange's warehouses in Asia are also rising, the analysts added.
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Weak fundamentals weighed on iron ore prices. Supply is at a high level compared with historical trends, Guangfa Futures analysts said.
Weak seasonal factors are further pressuring demand for iron ore as well, Baocheng Futures analysts said. Iron ore inventories in China are increasing while demand remains weak, they added.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
Fed's Cook Focused on Inflation Risks as Greater Threat to Economy
Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook sees a greater threat to the economy from elevated inflation than from a weakening labor market, a stance that suggests she could be skeptical of supporting a return to rate cuts.
Speaking in Miami on Wednesday to a club of economists, Cook said the economy has remained resilient and argued that, while the labor market has slowed, conditions are still solid for most workers. Inflation, meanwhile, remains elevated, and it is too soon to take comfort that price increases are cooling toward the Fed's 2%-a-year target, Cook said.
Europe Set to Hold Rates With ECB, BOE Following the Fed. The Weak Dollar's a Factor.
Europe's most important central banks are likely to hold interest rates steady on Thursday. Just like the Federal Reserve, policymakers across the Atlantic are in wait-and-see mode.
The Bank of England is widely expected to maintain rates of 3.75% when it makes its latest policy decision at 7 a.m. Eastern time, having lowered them by a quarter of a point in December.
Arm Holdings Expects Slower Revenue Growth in Fourth-Quarter
Arm Holdings forecast slower revenue growth despite rising demand for its chip designs for artificial intelligence data centers.
The British semiconductor design company on Wednesday guided for revenue to rise about 18% in the current quarter, slowing from growth of 26% in the fiscal third quarter.
U.S., Iran Agree to Discuss Nuclear Issues Friday in Oman
The U.S. and Iran have reached an agreement to hold nuclear talks in Oman on Friday, ending a drama over what would be discussed, but restarting a delicate diplomatic dance that may yet end with President Trump ordering airstrikes on Iran.
Both the White House and Iran's Foreign Ministry confirmed the Friday sitdown, the first time since last May that Washington and Tehran will hold formal negotiations over Iran's nuclear program. The U.S. wants Tehran to stop enriching uranium, curb its ballistic missile program and end its support for regional proxies. Iran has said it is willing to discuss only its nuclear work.
SpaceX Seeks Early Index Entry as It Prepares Massive IPO
Elon Musk's SpaceX is seeking an early boost for shares after the rocket-and-satellite business makes its stock market debut later this year.
Advisers for the company, which recently merged with xAI, have reached out to major index providers, including Nasdaq, to discuss how SpaceX and this year's other hot startups might join key indexes sooner than normal, according to people familiar with the matter.
Google to Double Spending as Earnings Beat Wall Street Expectations
Artificial intelligence is supercharging Google's advertising and cloud-computing businesses, and the company is ramping up spending to unheard-of levels in its quest to win the AI race.
Google parent Alphabet reported an 18% jump in fourth-quarter revenue and revealed plans to roughly double its spending on data centers and other capital projects.
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Expected Major Events for Thursday
01:01/IRL: Jan Ireland Services PMI
07:00/ROM: Dec Retail trade
07:00/GER: Dec Manufacturing orders
07:00/GER: Dec Manufacturing turnover
07:00/FIN: Dec Foreign trade
07:30/HUN: Dec Retail Sales
07:45/FRA: Dec Industrial production index
08:00/CZE: Dec Retail trade
08:00/SVK: Dec Internal trade, incl Wholesale & Retail
08:00/AUT: Nov Foreign Trade
09:00/UK: Jan UK monthly car registrations figures
09:00/ITA: Dec Retail Sales
09:30/UK: Jan S&P Global UK Construction PMI
10:00/CYP: Jan CPI
10:00/EU: Dec Retail trade
11:00/IRL: Jan Monthly Unemployment
12:00/UK: Bank of England Monetary Policy Report
12:00/UK: UK interest rate decision
12:00/UK: Agents' Summary of Business Conditions
13:15/EU: ECB interest rate announcement
13:30/CZE: Czech interest rate decision
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 05, 2026 00:04 ET (05:04 GMT)
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