Dental sector may steady in 2026, but full recovery remains distant, analysts say

By Sriparna Roy and Padmanabhan Ananthan

Feb 4 (Reuters) - Wall Street is hoping dental-product makers will offer a brighter 2026 outlook, but analysts say a full industry rebound may still be some time away.

From Henry Schein HSIC.O and Invisalign maker Align Technology ALGN.O to Envista NVST.N and Dentsply Sirona XRAY.O, major companies contended a choppy 2025 marked by uneven dental visits throughout the year.

While there appears to be some green shoots in demand, last year's volatility has left investors cautious, analysts said.

"The general expectations are for steady messaging and better/less bad results," Leerink analyst Michael Cherny said, noting that while trends that led to weakness last summer seem to have stabilized, there was not any meaningful acceleration.

At least four analysts expect U.S. dental demand to look relatively stable in 2026, a marked improvement from the "roller-coaster" swings of the past two years. But stability, they warn, should not be mistaken for recovery.

"The market generally remains soft, with demand for expensive procedures still depressed," said J.P.Morgan analyst Lilia-Celine B Lozada. She expects management teams to frame forecasts conservatively to allow for more predictable performance through the year.

There, however, are pockets of improvement. Patient volumes appear to be edging up and demand for clear aligners has shown some firmness, though analysts caution the category remains highly exposed to household budget pressures. The fourth quarter, typically boosted by seasonality and year-end spending, offered some relief.

Yet, confidence in a sustained rebound remains fragile. Elevated prices, labor market anxiety and shifting consumer sentiment continue to weigh on discretionary dental care.

"The consumer in dental is very fickle, it takes one tweet tomorrow to wake up to that we're putting tariffs back on and then all of the optimism goes away," said William Blair analyst Brandon Vazquez.

(Reporting by Sriparna Roy and Padmanabhan Ananthan in Bengaluru; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar)

((Sriparna.Roy@thomsonreuters.com))