Assessing Unum Group (UNM) Valuation After Recent Weak Momentum And Undervaluation Signals

Simply Wall St.02-06

AdvertisementWhy Unum Group (UNM) Is On Investors’ Radar Today Unum Group (UNM) is drawing fresh attention after recent share price moves, with the stock showing negative returns over the past week, ...

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See our latest analysis for Unum Group. At a share price of US$75.66, Unum Group’s recent 7 day and 90 day share price returns of 0.83% and 3.19% declines contrast with a 1 year total shareholder return of 0.99% and very strong 3 year and 5 year total shareholder returns. This suggests that recent momentum has faded even as longer term holders have still seen substantial value creation. If this shift in momentum has you thinking about where else returns could come from, it might be a good moment to scan our list of 22 top founder-led companies and see what stands out to you. With UNM trading at US$75.66, a value score of 4, a modelled intrinsic discount of about 56%, and a sizeable gap to analyst price targets, you have to ask: is this a genuine opportunity, or is the market already pricing in future growth? Most Popular Narrative: 20.9% Undervalued Compared with Unum Group’s last close at US$75.66, the most followed narrative points to a fair value of US$95.62, implying meaningful upside based on its long term cash flow potential.  Strong capital generation and excess liquidity (including an anticipated holding company cash position of $2 to $2.5 billion) position Unum to sustain elevated levels of shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks, providing a pathway for EPS growth and continued financial flexibility.  Read the complete narrative. Curious what earnings path and profit margins need to hold for that valuation to stack up? The narrative leans on consistent revenue growth, firm capital returns, and a future earnings multiple that sits below many peers. The full breakdown shows how those moving parts line up to support that fair value. Result: Fair Value of $95.62 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this depends on benefit ratios and the long term care block staying manageable, since adverse claims or reserve actions could quickly challenge today’s upbeat assumptions. Find out about the key risks to this Unum Group narrative.  Build Your Own Unum Group Narrative If you see the numbers differently or want to stress test your own assumptions, you can build a custom view in just a few minutes: Do it your way. A great starting point for your Unum Group research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If you are weighing up Unum Group and want to broaden your watchlist, it makes sense to line it up against other clear, data backed ideas.  Spot opportunities that appear mispriced by markets and compare them with Unum Group using our list of 55 high quality undervalued stocks that score well on quality and valuation filters. Strengthen your focus on consistency by checking out 15 dividend fortresses, a collection of companies with higher yields that may appeal if reliable cash distributions matter to you. Reduce the chances of unpleasant surprises by scanning 80 resilient stocks with low risk scores, where companies are filtered for more resilient balance sheets and fewer identified risk flags.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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