Polymarket Shows 55% Odds Cuba's Díaz-Canel Is Out By Year-End; What It Could Mean For NCLH, RCL, CCL

Benzinga_recent_news02-06

President Donald Trump signed an executive order last Thursday authorizing tariffs against any country that supplies Cuba with oil. The move aims to isolate the island from alternative suppliers like ...

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The move aims to isolate the island from alternative suppliers like ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/02/50449752/polymarket-55-percent-odds-cuba-diaz-canel-out-by-year-end\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1366192091.USD","symbol_name":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY PLUS \"AM\" (USD) INC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/02/50449752/polymarket-55-percent-odds-cuba-diaz-canel-out-by-year-end","article_id":"2609597705","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://cdn.benzinga.com/files/images/story/2026/02/06/Cruise-ship.jpeg?optimize=medium&dpr=2&auto=webp&width=120"],"rights":{"source":"benzinga_recent_news","url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/02/50449752/polymarket-55-percent-odds-cuba-diaz-canel-out-by-year-end","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2609597705","pubTimestamp":1770392580,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"benzinga_recent_news","name":"Benzinga"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Trump's new Cuba oil‑tariff order raises regime‑change speculation, boosts odds of political transition, and hints at a potential reopening that could reshape Caribbean cruise demand and pricing.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"benzinga.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU1366192091.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY PLUS \"AM\" (USD) INC","BK4517":"邮轮概念","CCL":"嘉年华邮轮","LU0266013472.USD":"AXA WF - Framlington Longevity Economy A Cap USD","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","BK4566":"资本集团","RCL":"皇家加勒比邮轮","LU1670627923.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4142":"酒店、度假村与豪华游轮","BK4588":"碎股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1670628061.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) INC","NCLH":"挪威邮轮"},"translate_title":"Polymarket显示古巴迪亚斯-卡内尔年底出局的可能性为55%；这对NCLH、RCL、CCL意味着什么","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"CCL":1.5,"RCL":1.5,"NCLH":1.5},"content_text":"President Donald Trump signed an executive order last Thursday authorizing tariffs against any country that supplies Cuba with oil. The move aims to isolate the island from alternative suppliers like Mexico and Russia.\nFollowing the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in January, Havana has lost its primary source of subsidized oil, leaving the island's economy in a state of near-collapse, and oil supplies dwindling. \nThe Trump administration is also reportedly working to identify Cuban exiles, government insiders, and civic groups to negotiate a deal to replace the current Communist leadership by the end of the year.\nOn Polymarket, traders are currently betting on a transition of power, though the consensus favors a political exit over a military one:\nThe odds that Miguel Díaz-Canel is out as leader by December 31 are currently at 55%.\nThe probability of a U.S. strike on Cuba in the same time frame, sits lower at 26%.\nThese odds suggest traders think Trump’s pressure could force a regime change without military action. If a negotiated transition emerges, the U.S. will want concessions, and Cuba will want economic oxygen. A reopening of U.S.-linked tourism, starting with cruise itineraries, would be a natural starting place. \nU.S. cruise ships were last permitted to sail to Cuba during a brief window of normalization between May 2016 and June 2019, a period that saw a massive surge in interest before the Trump administration implemented the current ban.\nA reopening of Cuba would fundamentally change the Caribbean map. Between 2016 and 2019, Cuba sailings commanded 20% higher premiums than cruises to the Bahamas. A democratic transition could reopen one of the cruise ship’s most alluring and profitable routes.\nImage: Shutterstock\nTo add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2609597705","isCrawlerRequest":true}