Assessing Exact Sciences (EXAS) Valuation After Oncotype DX Reaches 2 Million Patients

Simply Wall St.02-08

AdvertisementWhat the Oncotype DX milestone means for Exact Sciences (EXAS) investors Exact Sciences (EXAS) is back in focus after announcing that its Oncotype DX Breast Recurrence Score test has now ...

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For you as an investor, this milestone highlights growing clinical use, long-running evidence behind the assay, and its role in treatment decision support. All of these factors feed directly into perceptions of the company’s product strength. See our latest analysis for Exact Sciences. The Oncotype DX milestone lands at a time when momentum around Exact Sciences’ share price has picked up, with a 90 day share price return of 55.91% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 92.75%, although the 5 year total shareholder return of 33.44% remains weak by comparison. If this kind of cancer testing story has your attention, it could be worth scanning the broader opportunity set in healthcare focused AI by checking out our 26 healthcare AI stocks as a next step. With shares up sharply over the past year, a high forward P/E and an intrinsic value estimate suggesting roughly 32% upside, the key question now is simple: is EXAS still mispriced or is future growth already baked in? Most Popular Narrative: 2.5% Undervalued With Exact Sciences last closing at $103.18 and the most followed fair value sitting at $105.81, the valuation gap in this narrative is quite tight but still points to some residual upside in the deal backdrop.  The analysts have a consensus price target of $63.143 for Exact Sciences based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $80.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $50.0.  In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you would need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $4.1 billion, earnings will come to $277.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 56.5x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.1%. Read the complete narrative. Curious what justifies a fair value above $100 when the deal price already anchors expectations? Revenue, earnings and profit margin assumptions do the heavy lifting. The real twist is how rich a future P/E this narrative leans on. Want to see exactly how those moving parts stack up and whether they feel stretched or conservative? Result: Fair Value of $105.81 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this hinges on heavy Cologuard dependence and uncertain returns from high R&D and M&A spend, which could limit margins and undercut those rich future P/E assumptions. Find out about the key risks to this Exact Sciences narrative.  Build Your Own Exact Sciences Narrative If the current fair value story does not quite fit your view, or you prefer to lean on your own assumptions and data checks, you can build a custom narrative in just a few minutes and see how your view stacks up against the crowd, all by choosing to Do it your way. A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Exact Sciences. Looking for more investment ideas? If EXAS has sharpened your thinking, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with focused stock ideas that line up with your risk and return preferences.  Target potential value setups by checking out 53 high quality undervalued stocks that pair solid fundamentals with prices that may not fully reflect their underlying strength. Strengthen your income stream by scanning 14 dividend fortresses that combine higher yields with an emphasis on resilience. Prioritise capital preservation by reviewing 86 resilient stocks with low risk scores that score well on financial and risk checks.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if Exact Sciences might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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