Has Swire Pacific (SEHK:19) Run Too Far After Its Recent Share Price Rally?

Simply Wall St.02-07

If you are wondering whether Swire Pacific is still offering good value after its recent run, this article will walk you through what the current price might be implying. The share price most recently...

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The share price most recently...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/hk/capital-goods/hkg-19/swire-pacific-shares/news/has-swire-pacific-sehk19-run-too-far-after-its-recent-share\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"simplywall_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Has Swire Pacific (SEHK:19) Run Too Far After Its Recent Share Price Rally?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHas Swire Pacific (SEHK:19) Run Too Far After Its Recent Share Price Rally?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-07 21:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/hk/capital-goods/hkg-19/swire-pacific-shares/news/has-swire-pacific-sehk19-run-too-far-after-its-recent-share><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you are wondering whether Swire Pacific is still offering good value after its recent run, this article will walk you through what the current price might be implying. The share price most recently...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/hk/capital-goods/hkg-19/swire-pacific-shares/news/has-swire-pacific-sehk19-run-too-far-after-its-recent-share\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0877626530.USD","symbol_name":"FIDELITY ASIA PACIFIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) INC MONTHLY (G)","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/hk/capital-goods/hkg-19/swire-pacific-shares/news/has-swire-pacific-sehk19-run-too-far-after-its-recent-share","article_id":"2609952838","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/industry/7312000-choice2-main-header/1585186669177"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/hk/capital-goods/hkg-19/swire-pacific-shares/news/has-swire-pacific-sehk19-run-too-far-after-its-recent-share","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2609952838","pubTimestamp":1770469486,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"If you are wondering whether Swire Pacific is still offering good value after its recent run, this article will walk you through what the current price might be implying.\nThe share price most recently closed at HK$78.5, with returns of 4.1% over 7 days, 21.3% over 30 days, 23.2% year to date, 26.9% over 1 year, 56.8% over 3 years and 133.1% over 5 years.\nThese moves have come as investors continue to track Swire Pacific's role in the Hong Kong capital goods sector, with market attention on...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU0877626530.USD":"FIDELITY ASIA PACIFIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) INC MONTHLY (G)","BK1534":"收租股","SG9999009997.SGD":"United Asia Pacific Real Estate Income Acc SGD","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","LU0205439572.USD":"富达亚太股息基金","BK1230":"工业集团企业","SG9999010078.USD":"UNITED ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE INCOME (USDHDG) INC","SG9999010052.SGD":"United Asia Pacific Real Estate Income Dis SGD","LU1119993845.HKD":"FIDELITY ASIA PACIFIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKDHDG) INC","00019":"太古股份公司A","BK1216":"多样化房地产活动"},"translate_title":"太古股份（SEHK：19）近期股价上涨后是否走得太远？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"00019":0.9,"DCF":1},"content_text":"If you are wondering whether Swire Pacific is still offering good value after its recent run, this article will walk you through what the current price might be implying. The share price most recently closed at HK$78.5, with returns of 4.1% over 7 days, 21.3% over 30 days, 23.2% year to date, 26.9% over 1 year, 56.8% over 3 years and 133.1% over 5 years. These moves have come as investors continue to track Swire Pacific's role in the Hong Kong capital goods sector, with market attention on how its diversified portfolio could respond to changing conditions. Coverage has focused on the stock as a way to gain exposure to multiple underlying businesses. This helps frame how investors are thinking about its current price. Right now Swire Pacific scores 0/6 on our valuation checks, giving it a value score of 0. Next, we will walk through the main valuation methods often used for this company and then finish with a more complete way to think about its value beyond just the headline numbers.  Swire Pacific scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown. AdvertisementApproach 1: Swire Pacific Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company could be worth by projecting the cash it might generate in the future and then discounting those cash flows back to today. For Swire Pacific, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is HK$9,264.5m. Analysts provide explicit forecasts up to 2027, with projected free cash flow of HK$5,852.5m in that year. Beyond that, Simply Wall St extrapolates further with ten year projections that gradually adjust from HK$4,534.8m in 2026 to HK$4,099.8m in 2035, with each year discounted back to a present value. Adding these discounted cash flows and a terminal value gives an estimated intrinsic value of HK$38.98 per share. Compared with the recent share price of HK$78.50, the model suggests the stock is around 101.4% above this DCF estimate, so on this measure Swire Pacific screens as overvalued. Result: OVERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Swire Pacific may be overvalued by 101.4%. Discover 239 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities. 19 Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Swire Pacific. Approach 2: Swire Pacific Price vs Earnings For a profitable company, the P/E ratio is a straightforward way to see how much you are paying for each dollar of earnings. It lets you quickly compare what the market is willing to pay for this business versus others with similar earnings profiles. What counts as a “normal” P/E depends a lot on what investors expect from the company and how risky they think those earnings are. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can support a higher multiple, while lower growth or higher risk usually means a lower multiple is seen as more reasonable. Swire Pacific currently trades on a P/E of 86.64x. That is above the Industrials sector average of 12.69x and the peer group average of 15.55x. Simply Wall St also calculates a “Fair Ratio” of 18.79x for Swire Pacific. This is a proprietary estimate of the P/E you might expect given factors such as its earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and risk characteristics. Because the Fair Ratio is tailored to the company, rather than being a simple comparison with broad industry or peer averages, it can offer a more rounded view of how the current P/E stacks up. In this case, the actual P/E of 86.64x is well above the Fair Ratio of 18.79x, which points to the shares screening as overvalued on this metric. Result: OVERVALUED SEHK:19 P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 105 top founder-led companies. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Swire Pacific Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is simply your story about Swire Pacific, written in numbers like your view of its fair value, future revenue, earnings and profit margins, instead of just relying on generic ratios. On Simply Wall St, Narratives connect that story to a full financial forecast and then to a fair value, all within an easy tool on the Community page that is already used by millions of investors. You can then compare your Narrative Fair Value with the current share price to help decide whether Swire Pacific looks attractive, fully priced or expensive for you. Because Narratives update automatically when new information such as news or earnings is added to the platform, your view can stay aligned with the latest data without extra work. For example, one Swire Pacific Narrative might assume a relatively cautious outlook and arrive at a fair value well below the current price. Another, more optimistic Narrative could justify a fair value that is materially above where the shares trade today. Do you think there's more to the story for Swire Pacific? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! SEHK:19 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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