Is Mattel (MAT) Pricing Reflect Its Brand Strength After Recent Share Price Weakness

Simply Wall St.02-12

For readers wondering whether Mattel, at around US$21.06, is offering fair value right now or if the market is mispricing the toy maker, this article walks through what the numbers actually say about ...

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These moves give mixed signals when you compare them with its 13.5% and 12.9% annualized returns over 3 and 5...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK7507":"资源股","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","MAT":"美国美泰公司","BK7104":"黄金","BK7506":"金矿股","MAT.AU":"MATSA RESOURCES LTD","BK4190":"消闲用品"},"translate_title":"美泰(MAT)的定价是否反映了近期股价疲软后其品牌实力","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MAT":1.5,"MAT.AU":1.5,"DCF":1},"content_text":"For readers wondering whether Mattel, at around US$21.06, is offering fair value right now or if the market is mispricing the toy maker, this article walks through what the numbers actually say about the stock. The share price is US$21.06 after a 0.6% decline over the last 7 days, a 2.0% decline over 30 days, a 5.1% gain year to date and a 3.6% decline over the past year. These moves give mixed signals when you compare them with its 13.5% and 12.9% annualized returns over 3 and 5 years. Recent news coverage around Mattel has often focused on its brand strength and product portfolio, including how its core franchises keep it front of mind with consumers. This backdrop helps explain why investors are weighing long term brand value against shorter term share price swings. On our valuation checklist, Mattel scores 5 out of 6, as shown in our valuation score. Next we will compare what different valuation approaches suggest about the stock, before finishing with a way to assess value that goes beyond just the usual models.  Find out why Mattel's -3.6% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers. AdvertisementApproach 1: Mattel Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model projects a company’s future cash flows and then discounts them back to today’s value to estimate what the business might be worth per share. For Mattel, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections. The company’s last twelve months free cash flow is about $477.9 million, and analysts plus Simply Wall St projections suggest free cash flow of $510.1 million in 2026 and $776.5 million by 2030. Beyond the initial analyst horizon, the later years in the 10 year path are extrapolated rather than based on direct analyst estimates. Discounting these projected cash flows back to today gives an estimated intrinsic value of about $49.16 per share, using the same reporting currency as the share price, US$. Compared with the current share price of about $21.06, the model implies a 57.2% discount, which points to the stock trading well below this cash flow based estimate. Result: UNDERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Mattel is undervalued by 57.2%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 51 more high quality undervalued stocks. MAT Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Mattel. Approach 2: Mattel Price vs Earnings For a profitable company like Mattel, the P/E ratio is a straightforward way to relate what you pay for each share to the earnings the business is currently generating. It helps you see how many dollars investors are paying for each dollar of profit. What counts as a “normal” P/E depends a lot on growth expectations and risk. Higher expected earnings growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher multiple, while lower growth or higher risk typically point to a lower one. Mattel currently trades on a P/E of 15.14x, compared with the Leisure industry average of 23.12x and a peer group average of 36.68x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Mattel is 16.50x. This is a proprietary estimate of what P/E might make sense given the company’s earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and specific risks. That makes it more tailored than simply lining Mattel up against broad industry or peer averages, which may include companies with very different business models and risk levels. With Mattel’s actual P/E at 15.14x versus a Fair Ratio of 16.50x, the shares appear undervalued on this metric. Result: UNDERVALUED NasdaqGS:MAT P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 23 top founder-led companies. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Mattel Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. On Simply Wall St’s Community page you can use Narratives to connect your own story about Mattel to a set of revenue, earnings and margin estimates. You can then link that forecast to a Fair Value, compare it with the current share price to decide whether the stock looks expensive or cheap on your terms, and then see that view update automatically when fresh news or earnings arrive. For example, one investor might build a cautious Mattel Narrative that lines up with a US$17 Fair Value, while another builds a more optimistic Narrative pointing to US$30, and both can clearly see how their assumptions lead to very different conclusions about what the shares are worth. For Mattel, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Mattel Narratives: 🐂 Mattel Bull Case Fair Value: about US$29 per share Implied discount to Fair Value at the current US$21.06 price: roughly 27.3% Revenue growth used in this Narrative: 3.67%  Sees Mattel’s digital push, entertainment partnerships and licensing deals as key drivers of higher margin, more recurring revenue over time. Builds in steady revenue growth and broadly stable profit margins, then assumes the market is willing to pay a higher future P/E multiple than today. Anchors on a Fair Value near the top of the current analyst range and asks you to judge whether the required revenue, earnings and P/E assumptions feel realistic.  🐻 Mattel Bear Case Fair Value: about US$20 per share Implied premium to Fair Value at the current US$21.06 price: roughly 5.3% Revenue growth used in this Narrative: 3.73%  Emphasizes headwinds from digital entertainment, lower birth rates and heavy reliance on legacy brands, which could keep a lid on long term growth. Uses more cautious assumptions for the P/E multiple and earnings outlook, leading to a Fair Value close to the lower end of the analyst target range. Frames today’s price as close to what more cautious analysts see as fair, with less room for error if growth projects or new initiatives take longer to pay off.  Putting these side by side, you are essentially choosing which story feels closer to how you think Mattel will balance its brand strengths, digital and entertainment ambitions, and the pressures facing the toy industry over the next few years. If you want to see the assumptions in full and stress test them against your own, Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives gives you the full picture behind both Narratives and others from the community. Do you think there's more to the story for Mattel? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NasdaqGS:MAT 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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