Assessing Swire Pacific (SEHK:19) Valuation After Strong Recent Share Price Momentum

Simply Wall St.02-09

AdvertisementWhy Swire Pacific is on investors’ radar Swire Pacific (SEHK:19) has drawn attention after a strong run over the past month, with the share price moving in line with reported revenue of ...

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See our latest analysis for Swire Pacific. That recent move comes on top of a 19.9% 30 day share price return and a 24.7% year to date gain, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 30.6% and 5 year total shareholder return of 135.95% indicate momentum that has been building over time. If this kind of recovery story has your attention, it may be a good moment to broaden your search and review our list of 102 top founder-led companies. With Swire Pacific trading close to its HK$78.21 analyst price target and an intrinsic value estimate that is higher than today’s HK$79.45 share price, you have to ask whether there is still a buying opportunity here, or whether the market is already pricing in future growth. Most Popular Narrative: 1.6% Overvalued Against the HK$79.45 last close, the most followed narrative pegs Swire Pacific’s fair value at HK$78.21, a small gap that still hinges on some big assumptions.  Swire Pacific's aggressive expansion of its premium property brands (Taikoo Li, Taikoo Hui) and substantial ongoing development pipeline in Mainland China, where demand is underpinned by rising urbanization and population growth, positions the Property division for strong recurring rental and trading income growth over the coming years, supporting both revenue and earnings stability.  Read the complete narrative. Want to see what kind of revenue growth, margin lift and future earnings multiple need to line up for that fair value to hold? The full narrative spells out the path in detail, including how long the current earnings base would need to compound to support that price tag. Result: Fair Value of HK$78.21 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, there are clear pressure points, including prolonged weakness in office property markets and earnings dependence on Cathay Pacific and HAECO, that could quickly challenge this fair value story. Find out about the key risks to this Swire Pacific narrative.  Build Your Own Swire Pacific Narrative If you see the story differently or prefer to weigh the numbers yourself, you can shape a personalised Swire Pacific thesis in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Swire Pacific research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If Swire Pacific has you thinking more broadly about your portfolio, it is worth lining up a few fresh ideas before the next opportunity slips by.  Spot potential value plays early by scanning our 234 high quality undervalued stocks, where solid fundamentals meet prices that may not fully reflect them yet. Strengthen your income stream by checking out the 429 dividend fortresses, focused on companies offering higher yields with an emphasis on resilience. Sleep easier at night by reviewing the 335 resilient stocks with low risk scores, built around businesses with financial profiles that score well on our risk checks.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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