Will Stronger‑Than‑Guided Revenue, EBITDA and Credit Metrics Change Dave's (DAVE) Narrative

Simply Wall St.02-09

Dave Inc. recently reported preliminary, unaudited results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, indicating revenue and adjusted EBITDA are expected to come in above the top end of prior guidance...

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This combination of stronger-than-guided revenue, higher adjusted profitability, and improved credit performance offers investors a clearer picture of Dave’s operating progress and risk management. Next, we’ll examine how beating guidance on both revenue and adjusted EBITDA shapes Dave’s investment narrative and future expectations. Capitalize on the AI infrastructure supercycle with our selection of the 33 best 'picks and shovels' of the AI gold rush converting record-breaking demand into massive cash flow.AdvertisementWhat Is Dave's Investment Narrative?To own Dave, you need to be comfortable with a relatively young, high-growth consumer finance platform that is now profitable, still priced above sector peers on earnings, and heavily exposed to credit quality and execution. The latest preliminary 2025 numbers, with revenue and adjusted EBITDA topping guidance and 28 Days Past Due tracking better than expected, reinforce the idea that management can pull through on prior promises, at least for now. That should support the near term catalyst around the March 2 earnings call, where the 2026 outlook and any update on credit trends will likely set the tone. At the same time, the sharp 30 and 90 day share price pullback, insider selling, and a rich multiple versus the consumer finance group keep valuation risk and sentiment firmly in focus. But there is one key risk around credit and growth quality investors should not ignore.\n\nThe valuation report we've compiled suggests that Dave's current price could be inflated.Exploring Other PerspectivesDAVE 1-Year Stock Price Chart The Simply Wall St Community’s four fair value views span US$274 to US$347 per share, underscoring how differently people see Dave’s upside. Set that against recent guidance beats and tighter credit metrics, and it is clear why opinions can diverge sharply on how durable this performance really is.Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Dave - why the stock might be worth just $274.00!Build Your Own Dave NarrativeDisagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.A great starting point for your Dave research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.Our free Dave research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Dave's overall financial health at a glance.Ready For A Different Approach?Don't miss your shot at the next 10-bagger. Our latest stock picks just dropped:AI is about to change healthcare. These 26 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10b in market cap - there's still time to get in early.Explore 22 top quantum computing companies leading the revolution in next-gen technology and shaping the future with breakthroughs in quantum algorithms, superconducting qubits, and cutting-edge research.The future of work is here. Discover the 28 top robotics and automation stocks leading the charge in AI-driven automation and industrial transformation.  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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