A Look At Southern Copper (SCCO) Valuation After Strong Earnings And Higher Cash And Stock Dividend

Simply Wall St.02-10

AdvertisementEarnings and dividend announcements put Southern Copper in focus Southern Copper (SCCO) is back on investors’ radar after reporting fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings, alongside a...

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See our latest analysis for Southern Copper. The earnings release and richer dividend package have arrived alongside a strong run in the shares, with a 30 day share price return of 17.31% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 120.08%. This suggests momentum has been building rather than fading. If strong copper names are on your radar after this move, it could be worth scanning our 7 top copper producer stocks to see which other producers are catching market attention. With SCCO now at US$200.04 and trading at a premium to the average analyst price target, the key question is whether recent earnings and richer dividends still leave upside on the table, or if the market is already pricing in future growth. Most Popular Narrative: 44.3% Overvalued At $200.04, Southern Copper is trading well above the most widely followed narrative fair value of about $138.59, which is built on detailed revenue, margin and P/E assumptions.  Southern Copper has announced substantial capital investments totaling over $15 billion, including projects in Mexico and Peru, which are expected to drive future production growth and potentially boost revenue significantly. The company's Buenavista zinc concentrator is now operating at full capacity, anticipated to drive a 31% increase in zinc production in 2025, likely enhancing revenues and improving net margins due to efficient operations.  Read the complete narrative. Curious how those long term projects, higher forecast margins and a richer future P/E are stitched together into that fair value number? The full narrative spells out the revenue path, profit assumptions and valuation multiple that sit behind the $138.59 figure, and shows how sensitive the outcome is to even small tweaks in those inputs. Result: Fair Value of $138.59 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, that fair value picture can shift fast if U.S. and China trade tensions hit copper demand, or if rising operating costs squeeze those projected margins. Find out about the key risks to this Southern Copper narrative.  Build Your Own Southern Copper Narrative If that fair value story does not sit right with you, or you simply prefer to work from your own data and assumptions, you can build a custom view of Southern Copper in just a few minutes. To get started, use Do it your way. A great starting point for your Southern Copper research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If Southern Copper has caught your interest, do not stop here. The screener can surface other companies that match your style so you are not missing better fits.  Spot potential value setups early by checking companies highlighted in our 52 high quality undervalued stocks that combine quality fundamentals with appealing pricing signals. Prioritise resilience by reviewing companies in the 84 resilient stocks with low risk scores that score well on stability and downside risk metrics. Hunt for lesser known opportunities by scanning the screener containing 24 high quality undiscovered gems that flag under followed names with solid fundamentals.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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