Cathay Pacific Airways (SEHK:293) Valuation Check After A Strong Year Of Share Price Gains

Simply Wall St.02-10

AdvertisementWhat recent performance says about Cathay Pacific Airways (SEHK:293) Cathay Pacific Airways (SEHK:293) has drawn fresh attention after a 1 day return of about 1.8%, adding to gains over ...

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For context, the stock shows a 7 day return near 4.9%, around 1.8% over the past month, and roughly 5.7% over the past 3 months, with year to date performance close to 1.3%. See our latest analysis for Cathay Pacific Airways. At a share price of HK$12.79, Cathay Pacific Airways has moved firmly higher over the past year, with relatively steady short term share price gains and a much stronger multi year total shareholder return. This suggests sentiment has been improving rather than fading. If this rebound in airline shares has you thinking about other opportunities tied to global activity, it could be a good moment to check out 24 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks as another way to find potential ideas. With Cathay Pacific trading at HK$12.79 alongside an estimated intrinsic discount of about 53%, the key question now is simple: is the stock still undervalued, or is the market already pricing in future growth? Most Popular Narrative: 39.8% Overvalued According to the most followed narrative, Cathay Pacific Airways has a fair value of around HK$9.15, which sits well below the recent HK$12.79 share price, so the story here is less about momentum and more about what is baked into the assumptions.  Yet what loomed already large over Cathay currently becomes uglier by the week, that is the veritable trade war between the US and China. Cathay is unusually dependent on its cargo business: A full quarter of its revenues is brought up by that segment, making the carrier particularly sensitive to developments in the business cycles of its core markets. Even though many of these have won some temporary respite from Donald Trump''s pausing his \"reciprocal\" tariffs up until mid-July, the region''s economy stands to take a massive hit from US protectionist measures.  Read the complete narrative. It may be curious that an airline with strong margins, relatively low debt among big carriers, and premium positioning ends up tagged as overvalued here. The answer sits in a carefully trimmed growth outlook and a more conservative profit multiple than might be expected for a company in such a key regional hub. If you want to see which assumptions really move that HK$9.15 fair value, the full narrative lays out the numbers in black and white. Result: Fair Value of HK$9.15 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, you might also see this view challenged if cargo demand surprises on the upside or if investors become comfortable paying a higher P/E again. Find out about the key risks to this Cathay Pacific Airways narrative. Another angle on value That HK$9.15 fair value is built on conservative growth and earnings assumptions, but the market is sending a different message. At HK$12.79, Cathay Pacific trades on a P/E of 8.7x, below the Asian airlines average of 11x and far below peers at 26.2x. Our fair ratio work suggests the P/E could move closer to 11.2x over time. If sentiment shifts, that gap might close in a rush or stay wide for years. Which path do you think is more realistic for this airline? See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. SEHK:293 P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026 Build Your Own Cathay Pacific Airways Narrative If you see the data pointing in a different direction or simply prefer to test your own assumptions, you can build a personalised view in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Cathay Pacific Airways research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If Cathay Pacific has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with ideas filtered by quality, value, and resilience using our screener.  Spot potential mispricings early by scanning our list of 234 high quality undervalued stocks that combine solid fundamentals with room for a re rate. Prioritise resilience first and sift through 335 resilient stocks with low risk scores that score well on stability so surprises are less likely to catch you off guard. Get ahead of the crowd by reviewing our screener containing 545 high quality undiscovered gems that the broader market may not be paying close attention to yet.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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