A Look At Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) Valuation After New Asia Pacific Black Widow Drone Order

Simply Wall St.02-12

Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) is back in focus after an Asia Pacific ally selected its Black Widow small unmanned aircraft system in a competitive tender, the second recent military order for this platform ...

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See our latest analysis for Red Cat Holdings. The new Asia Pacific Black Widow order comes after a sharp 47.43% 90 day share price return and a 7.86% 1 month share price gain, although the stock has pulled back recently with a 7 day share price return of negative 11.44% and a 1 day share price return of negative 7.95% from a last close of US$12.62. Long term holders are sitting on a three year total shareholder return of roughly 10x and a 5 year total shareholder return above 150%, suggesting momentum has cooled in the very short term but remains strong over a multi year horizon. If this defense contract has put drones on your radar, it could be worth scanning 30 robotics and automation stocks as a starting point for other robotics and automation names. With fresh military demand, rapid annual revenue and net income growth, and a market price sitting well below a US$19.50 analyst target, is Red Cat still undervalued here, or is the market already pricing in years of future growth? AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 29.9% Undervalued Compared with Red Cat Holdings' last close at $12.62, the most followed narrative points to a fair value of $18.00, implying meaningful upside if those assumptions play out.  Record ramp in defense drone demand, highlighted by the U.S. Army's need for millions of drones and a fast expanding SRR program, positions Red Cat's validated Black Widow and FANG platforms to drive sustained revenue acceleration and a higher recurring production base.  Read the complete narrative. Curious what has to happen for that valuation to make sense? The narrative leans on very fast revenue growth, a sharp profit margin swing and a premium earnings multiple. The numbers behind those assumptions are punchy. Result: Fair Value of $18.00 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this hinges on continued U.S. defense funding and the successful ramp up of new factories, and any shortfall in orders or underused capacity could quickly challenge that upside case. Find out about the key risks to this Red Cat Holdings narrative. Another View Using P/B The bullish narrative leans on fast growth and a high future earnings multiple, but today Red Cat trades on a P/B of 5.9x versus about 4x for the US Aerospace & Defense industry and 4.2x for peers. That richer valuation suggests less margin for error if things do not go to plan. How comfortable are you paying above the pack for a still unprofitable drone name? See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. NasdaqCM:RCAT P/B Ratio as at Feb 2026 Build Your Own Red Cat Holdings Narrative If you see the data differently or want to stress test your own assumptions, you can build a custom Red Cat view in just a few minutes: Do it your way. A great starting point for your Red Cat Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If you stop here, you only see one angle. Take a few minutes to scan broader opportunities so you do not miss the next theme that fits your style.  Spot potential high risk high reward opportunities early by reviewing 27 elite penny stocks with strong financials that pass basic financial quality checks. Zero in on businesses that combine quality and attractive pricing by checking our 51 high quality undervalued stocks backed by consistent fundamentals. Prioritise resilience with companies that focus on capital strength through the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (45 results) tailored for prudence minded investors.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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