Constellation Brands Beer Volumes Improve Early in 2026, But Recovery Unlikely to Be Linear, RBC Says

MT Newswires Live02-12

Constellation Brands (STZ) management sounded cautiously optimistic on near-term trends, while admitting on the highly volatile situation, RBC said in a Wednesday note, following meetings with the company's beer division president Jim Sabia and vice president of investor relations Blair Veenema.

The brokerage cautioned the recovery may be uneven, amid continued pressure from Hispanic consumers, who account for about 40% of beer sales, as economic strain and immigration concerns weigh on spending.

According to the report, Circana beer volumes have improved, while Constellation's tracked-channel beer volumes rose 6.2% year-to-date, supported by easier comps, lighter pricing, and a softer-than-usual Dry January.

RBC flagged margin pressure from volume deleverage, tariffs, higher aluminum costs, and mix shifts toward cans, noting volume trends will be the key swing factor as 2027 margins remain below the company's 39% to 40% target range.

RBC also highlighted Constellation's focus on price-pack innovation, including new 12-packs and Barrilito value-brand tests, along with potential upside from World Cup-driven beer occasions this summer.

The firm maintained its outperform rating on the stock with a $185 price target.

Shares of the company were down 1% in recent trading.

Price: 163.27, Change: -2.36, Percent Change: -1.42

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