Assessing Hamilton Lane (HLNE) Valuation After Recent Share Price Weakness

Simply Wall St.02-16

AdvertisementHamilton Lane stock reaction and recent performance context Hamilton Lane (HLNE) has been on investors’ radar after recent share price pressure, with the stock showing about a 20% decline...

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In this context, the company’s reported annual revenue of US$763.4 million and net income of US$233.5 million give investors concrete numbers to weigh against the recent share performance and sentiment shifts. See our latest analysis for Hamilton Lane. Looking at the bigger picture, Hamilton Lane’s recent share price pressure, including a 7 day share price return of 6.8% decline and a 30 day share price return of 19.7% decline, sits against a 1 year total shareholder return of 20.2% decline but a 3 year total shareholder return of 59.5%. This suggests shorter term momentum has faded while longer term holders have still seen meaningful gains. If this recent pullback has you thinking about where else capital could go to work, it might be a good time to broaden your search and check out 23 top founder-led companies. With the shares under pressure but annual revenue at US$763.4 million and net income at US$233.5 million, the key question now is simple: is Hamilton Lane on sale, or is the market already pricing in future growth? Most Popular Narrative: 32.2% Undervalued With Hamilton Lane last closing at $122.76 against a narrative fair value of $181.14, the current price sits well below that central estimate, which is built using a 7.91% discount rate and detailed assumptions on future earnings power.  Strong momentum in Hamilton Lane's evergreen and specialized fund products, including recent launches in infrastructure, multi-strategy, and Asia-focused vehicles, reflects expanding demand from both institutional and retail clients seeking alternatives to traditional markets, which supports accelerating fee-earning AUM growth and increasing fee-related revenues.  Read the complete narrative. Curious what kind of revenue expansion and margin profile sit behind that fair value, and how they tie into a premium future earnings multiple? The narrative spells out a specific earnings path, the mix between recurring fees and incentives, and the level of P/E it would take to justify today’s implied upside, but keeps a tight link between those assumptions and cash flows that are being projected several years out. Result: Fair Value of $181.14 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this hinges on key assumptions, and tighter regulation or fee pressure from rising competition could squeeze margins and challenge the earnings path implied by that potential upside. Find out about the key risks to this Hamilton Lane narrative. Another View: What Earnings Multiples Are Saying There is a twist when you look at Hamilton Lane through earnings multiples instead of fair value estimates. The shares trade on a P/E of 23.1x, which is in line with the US Capital Markets industry at 23.1x, but well above the peer average of 12.6x and the fair ratio of 19.2x that our model suggests the market could move toward. That gap points to some valuation risk if sentiment cools, so the question is whether you think the business quality and growth profile justify paying above that fair ratio. See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. NasdaqGS:HLNE P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026 Build Your Own Hamilton Lane Narrative If you see the numbers differently or prefer to test your own assumptions, you can build a complete view in just a few minutes. Do it your way. A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Hamilton Lane. Looking for more investment ideas? If this got you thinking about how to put your portfolio to work, do not stop at just one company when there are plenty of other angles to consider.  Prioritize resilience and sleep a little easier at night by scanning 84 resilient stocks with low risk scores that score well on our risk checks. Hunt for quality at a sensible price by reviewing 53 high quality undervalued stocks that pair solid fundamentals with appealing valuations. Seek out tomorrow’s potential standouts early by browsing our screener containing 23 high quality undiscovered gems that many investors may be overlooking.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if Hamilton Lane might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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