A Look At Pagaya Technologies (PGY) Valuation After Cautious 2026 Guidance And Profitability Turnaround

Simply Wall St.02-13

Pagaya Technologies (PGY) is back in focus after its latest quarterly earnings and 2026 guidance, where solid profitability metrics met cautious revenue and network volume expectations and prompted a ...

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See our latest analysis for Pagaya Technologies. That cautious 2026 guidance and tighter underwriting are now being reflected in the share price, with a 7 day share price return of 25.53% and a 30 day share price return of 48.74% compounding a year to date share price return of 44.34%. However, the 1 year total shareholder return of 15.3% shows that recent momentum has weakened compared with the broader holding period. If this earnings reaction has you reassessing fintech and AI names, it could be a good moment to scan our list of 59 profitable AI stocks that aren't just burning cash as potential alternatives. With Pagaya now profitable and guiding to GAAP net income of US$100 million to US$150 million in 2026, and trading at US$12.40 against an average analyst target of US$27.55, is this a reset entry point, or is future growth already fully priced in? AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 67.5% Undervalued Pagaya Technologies' most followed narrative points to a fair value of about $38.18 against the last close of $12.40, framing a wide valuation gap that hinges on execution around growth, margins and capital allocation.  Expanding product offerings such as the Direct Marketing Engine and Affiliate Optimizer enable Pagaya's lending partners to efficiently acquire more customers and increase application flow with minimal tech investment, supporting smoother, more predictable growth in fee revenue and network volume over time. Persistent investment and advancement in proprietary AI-driven underwriting, combined with growing data network effects from onboarding more partners, enhance credit decision accuracy and operational scalability, supporting higher net margins and improved long-term profitability.  Read the complete narrative. Want to see what kind of revenue ramp, margin profile and future earnings multiple need to line up for that fair value? The most followed narrative lays out an aggressive earnings glide path, a step change in profitability and a valuation multiple that leans on those projections holding up. Curious which assumptions really move the model and how sensitive the fair value is if they shift even a little? Result: Fair Value of $38.18 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, there are clear pressure points here, including tighter regulation of AI underwriting and any pullback from key lending partners. These factors could quickly challenge this narrative. Find out about the key risks to this Pagaya Technologies narrative.  Build Your Own Pagaya Technologies Narrative If you look at the numbers and come to a different conclusion, or simply want your own angle on Pagaya, you can build a custom narrative in just a few minutes: Do it your way A great starting point for your Pagaya Technologies research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Ready to hunt for your next idea? If Pagaya has sharpened your thinking, do not stop here. Use the Simply Wall St Screener to spot other opportunities that might suit your approach.  Target quality at a discount by reviewing our 55 high quality undervalued stocks that pair strong fundamentals with pricing that could appeal to value focused investors. Prioritize resilience first by scanning 85 resilient stocks with low risk scores that score well on financial stability and lower risk indicators. Get ahead of the crowd by checking our screener containing 23 high quality undiscovered gems that combine solid metrics with relatively low market attention.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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