A Look At Arena REIT (ASX:ARF) Valuation After Strong Half Year Earnings Growth

Simply Wall St.02-15 11:30

Arena REIT (ASX:ARF) just released half year results and outlined fresh acquisition plans, putting its earnings profile and capital recycling approach in the spotlight for investors watching social ...

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The 1 year total shareholder return of a 3.68% decline contrasts...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":["earning"],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"ARF.AU":"ARENA REIT","REIT":"ALPS Active REIT ETF","8C8U.SI":"Cent Accom REIT","CFA.SI":"NikkoAM-STC Asia REIT"},"translate_title":"半年盈利强劲增长后Arena REIT(ASX：ARF)估值一览","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"8C8U.SI":1.5,"REIT":1.5,"CFA.SI":1.5,"ARF.AU":1.5},"content_text":"Arena REIT (ASX:ARF) just released half year results and outlined fresh acquisition plans, putting its earnings profile and capital recycling approach in the spotlight for investors watching social infrastructure real estate. See our latest analysis for Arena REIT. The latest half year earnings update and renewed acquisition push have come alongside a 1 day share price return of 3.17% and a 7 day share price return of 3.47%. The 1 year total shareholder return of a 3.68% decline contrasts with a 5 year total shareholder return of 49.07%, which suggests that shorter term momentum has picked up even as the longer term story has been more rewarding. If Arena REIT's social infrastructure focus has you thinking about where else steady cash flows might come from, it could be worth scanning our 2 top founder-led companies as a fresh source of ideas. With earnings per share and net income up sharply over the half year and the shares still sitting below some valuation estimates, the key question now is whether Arena REIT is quietly undervalued or if the market is already pricing in future growth. AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 14.2% Undervalued At A$3.58, Arena REIT is trading below the most followed fair value estimate of about A$4.17, which is built on detailed assumptions about its earnings outlook and risk profile.  Government policy focus on affordable early childhood education and the recent 3 day childcare guarantee are expected to lift participation and daily fee capacity, which should underpin sustained market rent reviews above annual indexation and drive continued growth in property income and operating EPS.  Read the complete narrative. Curious how this story connects rent reviews, earnings forecasts and policy support to that valuation gap? The full narrative lays out the earnings path and profit margins behind it. Result: Fair Value of A$4.17 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this depends on effective execution of the 29-asset pipeline and consistent government support for early learning and healthcare funding, both of which can change. Find out about the key risks to this Arena REIT narrative.  Build Your Own Arena REIT Narrative If you see the numbers differently or want to stress test your own view against the data, you can build a custom narrative in minutes using Do it your way. A great starting point for your Arena REIT research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If you stop with just one stock, you could miss out on opportunities that fit your goals even better, so give yourself options with a broader shortlist.  Target long term wealth and potential mispricing by scanning our 12 high quality undervalued stocks that filters for companies with quality fundamentals at prices that may not fully reflect them. Strengthen your income stream by reviewing the 9 dividend fortresses that focuses on companies offering higher yields with an eye on resilience. Keep risk in check by working through the 5 resilient stocks with low risk scores which highlights businesses with profiles some investors may find more stable.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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