By Dow Jones Newswires staff
Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting Feb. 16.
U.S. gross domestic product data, PCE inflation figures and minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting are awaited as investors continue to gauge when the next interest-rate cut is likely.
Among European data, provisional purchasing managers' data and U.K. inflation data will mark the highlight. In Asia, some key economic figures out of Japan, Australia and Southeast Asia will be in focus in a holiday-shortened week, with many markets closing for Lunar New Year.
U.S. markets are closed on Monday for Presidents Day.
U.S.
Investors continue to expect that the Fed will cut interest rates again this year, but the timing remains uncertain, particularly after recent strong U.S. jobs data, which showed the economy created 130,000 jobs last month.
This will leave investors scrutinizing Fed minutes on Wednesday followed by advance fourth-quarter gross domestic product figures and PCE inflation data--the central bank's preferred inflation measure--for December on Friday.
Evidence of a strong jobs market leave rate cuts looking unlikely in the immediate months to come. However, further data showed below-forecast U.S. inflation, which reminded investors that rate reductions are probably still on their way, despite uncertainty over the timing.
U.S. money markets currently fully price a 25 basis-point rate cut in July and around 60 basis points of reductions in total in 2026, LSEG data show.
Friday's GDP data comes as retail sales figures for December were weak and will likely reflect the impact of the lengthy U.S. government shutdown late last year. However, third-quarter GDP figures were strong and evidence of another robust performance at the end of last year could further damp rate-cut prospects in the coming months.
"The GDP figures seem set to point towards a continuation of impressive momentum towards the end of the year," Investec economist Philip Shaw said in a note.
Fed minutes, meanwhile, will be watched to assess the arguments between those policymakers who favor unchanged rates and those who favor rate cuts.
"The January minutes will likely detail the arguments that support a wait-and-see approach versus those that could support rate cuts, consistent with the different viewpoints expressed by various FOMC policymakers since the meeting," HSBC analysts said in a note.
Other data due during the week include January industrial production on Wednesday; December trade figures and weekly jobless claims on Thursday; followed by the final University of Michigan survey for February and December new home sales Friday.
The Treasury will offer $16 billion in 20-year bonds on Wednesday and $9 billion in 30-year inflation-protected TIPS on Thursday.
Canada
Canadian inflation data for January are due on Tuesday.
Inflation figures are unlikely to alter expectations that the Bank of Canada is likely to keep interest rates on hold for the rest of this year, particularly given recent evidence of a relatively robust economy.
Trade tensions with the U.S. pose a risk, however, and mean there is an outside possibility of rates being cut again, analysts said.
Canadian trade data for December are due Thursday.
Canadian markets are closed Monday for the Family Day holiday.
Eurozone
Flash estimate purchasing manager indices for France, Germany and the eurozone on Friday will be the key data to watch for signs of improvement in the economic outlook.
"We do not expect a huge improvement in the PMIs from the January print with services still expected to remain in expansionary territory and the manufacturing one in contractionary, albeit only marginally," Nicola Nobile, chief Italy economist at Oxford Economics said in a note.
Other indicators will include eurozone industrial production data for December on Monday and Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index for February on Tuesday. Final January CPI data are due from Germany on Tuesday and from France on Wednesday. German producer prices for January and Spanish industrial order and turnover data for December will be released on Friday.
Negotiated wages data for the eurozone are due on Friday. HSBC expects an acceleration to 3.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter from 1.9% in the third quarter, driven by a jump in Germany following a sharp drop in the third quarter due to one-off payments being phased out.
"So the downward trajectory in wages relative to the start of the year should remain intact," HSBC analysts said. "Hence, this should reaffirm the European Central Bank's expectation of further wage moderation into 2026, supporting its 2% inflation target."
Government-bond auctions are scheduled in Slovakia on Monday, Germany and Finland on Tuesday, Germany again on Wednesday, Spain and France Thursday. Germany's auction on Tuesday is for March 2028 Schatz and that on Wednesday is for February 2036 Bund.
U.K.
U.K. consumer-price inflation data for January on Wednesday plus jobs data on Tuesday will be the highlight of a busy week in the U.K. as expectations grow that the Bank of England could cut interest rates earlier than previously thought.
A very tight 5-4 BOE vote to keep rates on hold earlier this month, with four policymakers favoring reducing rates, combined with weak fourth-quarter U.K. gross domestic product data have left many analysts concluding that interest rates could be cut again as soon as next month.
U.K. money markets price a 63% chance of a rate cut on March 19, LSEG data show.
Inflation remains well above the BOE's target of 2.0%, standing at 3.4% in December, making many policymakers hesitant to reduce rates.
However, inflation has cooled significantly in recent months and is expected to drop further. A further notable slowdown in January, particularly if pared with evidence of slowing wage growth within Tuesday's jobs data, would increase prospects of a rate cut next month.
"Soft data could further bolster the case for another easing as soon as at the next meeting on 19 March," Investec economist Philip Shaw said in a note.
Further evidence of how the economy is performing will also be watched, particularly after the recent weak GDP data.
Flash purchasing managers surveys on Friday will give a snapshot of how activity in the manufacturing and services sectors have performed in February. Retail sales figures for January are also due Friday. Other data including January producer prices figures, released alongside the CPI inflation data on Wednesday, and January public finance data on Friday.
Scandinavia
Swedish January unemployment data are due Monday, followed by Swedish inflation data for January on Friday.
Denmark will hold an auction on Wednesday, while Sweden will offer inflation-linked bonds on Thursday.
Japan
Government data due Monday are expected to show real gross domestic product grew 0.4% in October-December from the previous quarter, according to economists polled by data provider Quick. That compares with a 0.6% contraction in July-September. Economists expect both domestic and external demand supported growth in the final quarter of 2025.
Trade figures and January consumer inflation data are also scheduled for release Wednesday and Friday, respectively.
The Bank of Japan is set to conduct outright purchases across multiple segments of the government bond market on Wednesday. These include bonds with maturities of more than five years up to 10 years, and those longer than 25 years. The purchases are likely to support the local bond market that day.
The ministry of finance will hold two auctions over the week. It will sell about 2.5 trillion yen of five-year sovereign notes Tuesday and about 800 billion yen of 20-year government bonds Thursday. The 20-year bonds to be issued in February will reopen the January 2026 issue, the ministry said. Of the two, the 20-year sale may attract stronger demand due to a likely higher yield.
China
China enters its New Year holiday, a closely watched period as the government's top priority for the year remains expanding domestic demand.
Over its annual Chinese New Year travel rush, which officially started at the beginning of February and stretches until mid-March, cross-regional passenger flows are expected to hit a record 9.5 billion, according to HSBC economists.
During the upcoming nine-day holiday period, marking the longest on record, government agencies will be targeting consumption campaigns, including subsidies for consumer goods trade-ins.
As for upcoming economic data releases, investors will be on watch for new foreign direct investment data expected soon as well as the central bank's announcement on the latest loan prime rate.
ANZ Research does not expect a near-term rate cut, saying policymakers are likely to rely on targeted measures rather than broad-based interest rate reductions, said its Greater China chief economist Raymond Yeung.
Australia/New Zealand
Australian bond traders will focus on minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's recent policy meeting, at which it raised interest rates and reversed a cut delivered in August. The meeting minutes will be released on Tuesday.
The RBA cited surging domestic demand and an upbeat global economic outlook among its reasons to raise interest rates, with traders already pricing in a second increase in May.
Comments from senior RBA officials since the move suggest the central bank expects to raise rates further, amid concerns inflation may not return to target levels until mid-2028.
January employment data on Thursday are also likely to confirm that the job market remains tight, supporting this month's interest rate increase.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to keep interest rates on hold at a policy meeting on Wednesday. Traders will focus on the central bank's forecasts for the economy amid expectations it will recover solidly in 2026.
Economists do not expect signals of coming interest rate increases, as unemployment remains elevated, although inflation shows signs of picking up again.
Malaysia
Malaysia will release January's inflation data Thursday and trade data on Friday.
Headline inflation likely eased to 1.5% from 1.6% in December 2025, partly due to lower retail fuel prices, Barclays said. Core inflation is also expected to slow to 2.0% from 2.3%, as the base effect from a one-off dip in December 2024 for other information and communication services costs fades, it added.
January export growth likely remained firm on strong tech demand, although the trade surplus is expected to have narrowed, Barclays said. Export momentum may continue this year, supported by steady global and regional growth, U.S. tariff developments and resilient electrical and electronics shipments, with semiconductor trends a key focus, said RHB senior economist Chin Yee Sian.
Singapore
Singapore will release January non-oil domestic exports data on Monday, with exports expected to have risen 10.8% on year in January, according to a WSJ poll of five economists. That would exceed December's 6.1% increase. Barclays expects tech demand to support exports.
Thailand
Thailand will release fourth-quarter and full-year gross domestic product data Monday.
The economy likely grew 1.3% on year, according to a WSJ poll of six economists, which would be higher than 1.2% growth in the third quarter. Growth likely improved in the fourth quarter on sequential improvement in tourists arrivals, manufacturing production and government spending, Barclays said.
Indonesia
Bank Indonesia is expected to hold interest rates steady on Thursday and is likely to focus on the effectiveness of policy transmission while keeping the door open for further rate cuts, UOB said.
Reflecting this shift, UOB has delayed its rate-cut forecast to the first half of 2026. It expects Bank Indonesia to resume easing with a 25-basis-point cut in March, followed by a final 25-basis-point cut in the second quarter, bringing the policy rate to a terminal level of 4.25%.
Philippines
The Philippine central bank will announce its rate decision Thursday, with ANZ economists expecting a cut. "An easing move would help stabilize domestic demand without jeopardizing external stability, particularly as the [peso's] near-term pressures are driven more by global [dollar] dynamics than by domestic imbalances," ANZ said.
Although the possibility of an interest rate cut cannot be ruled out, UOB maintains the view that BSP can afford to remain patient. The January headline and core inflation readings may signal an early stage of reflation amid a gradual recovery in domestic demand, UOB noted.
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas said that its current monetary easing cycle is nearing an end at its last meeting, and that any additional easing will likely be limited.
Any references to days are in local times.
Write to Jessica Fleetham at jessica.fleetham@wsj.com and Jihye Lee at jihye.lee@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 13, 2026 11:21 ET (16:21 GMT)
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