Does AeroVironment's (AVAV) Airport Laser Test Reframe Its Counter-Drone Role at Critical Infrastructure?

Simply Wall St.02-14

Recently, AeroVironment’s LOCUST counter-drone laser system was deployed by the U.S. Army near El Paso International Airport, leading to a seven-hour airspace shutdown and raising questions about how ...

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This real-world use of LOCUST at a major transportation hub highlights AeroVironment’s growing role in counter-drone and border security missions, placing its advanced technologies under intense public and policymaker scrutiny. With this deployment spotlighting AeroVironment’s counter-drone capabilities near critical infrastructure, we’ll now examine how it could influence the company’s broader investment narrative. AI is about to change healthcare. These 25 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10b in market cap - there's still time to get in early.AdvertisementAeroVironment Investment Narrative RecapTo own AeroVironment, you need to believe its unmanned systems, counter-drone, and directed-energy technologies can secure durable demand from U.S. and allied defense customers, despite ongoing losses and margin pressure after the BlueHalo acquisition. The El Paso LOCUST deployment puts AeroVironment’s counter-drone role in the spotlight, but its immediate impact on the key near term catalyst (execution on upcoming earnings and guidance) and the biggest current risk (heavy reliance on U.S. budgets and contracts) appears limited so far. The most relevant recent development is AeroVironment hiring Stephen Voline as Senior Director of Washington Operations. With more than three decades in military operations, defense policy, and congressional engagement, his role in shaping conversations with Congress and national security agencies sits directly alongside the LOCUST deployment news, at a time when the company’s dependence on U.S. defense funding and scrutiny of counter-drone systems are both central to its catalysts and its risks. But while the LOCUST deployment may look like a clear positive, investors should also be aware that... Read the full narrative on AeroVironment (it's free!)AeroVironment's narrative projects $2.6 billion revenue and $264.5 million earnings by 2028.Uncover how AeroVironment's forecasts yield a $391.44 fair value, a 61% upside to its current price.Exploring Other PerspectivesAVAV 1-Year Stock Price Chart While the LOCUST incident highlights AeroVironment’s counter drone relevance, the most pessimistic analysts were already cautioning that reliance on a few big defense contracts could make earnings highly unpredictable, even as they assumed revenue might still climb toward about US$2.6 billion by 2028, so it is worth comparing how those more cautious views might shift in light of this new scrutiny.Explore 8 other fair value estimates on AeroVironment - why the stock might be worth just $279.58!Build Your Own AeroVironment NarrativeDisagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.A great starting point for your AeroVironment research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.Our free AeroVironment research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate AeroVironment's overall financial health at a glance.Interested In Other Possibilities?Our daily scans reveal stocks with breakout potential. Don't miss this chance:Find 54 companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.Uncover the next big thing with 28 elite penny stocks that balance risk and reward.Invest in the nuclear renaissance through our list of 85 elite nuclear energy infrastructure plays powering the global AI revolution.  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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