Reassessing AIA Group (SEHK:1299) After Mixed Share Price Performance And Shifting Sector Sentiment

Simply Wall St.02-13

If you are wondering whether AIA Group is priced attractively today, this article walks through what the current share price could mean for you as an investor. The stock last closed at HK$80.30, with ...

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The stock last closed at HK$80.30, with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/hk/insurance/hkg-1299/aia-group-shares/news/reassessing-aia-group-sehk1299-after-mixed-share-price-perfo\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"simplywall_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reassessing AIA Group (SEHK:1299) After Mixed Share Price Performance And Shifting Sector Sentiment</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReassessing AIA Group (SEHK:1299) After Mixed Share Price Performance And Shifting Sector Sentiment\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-13 22:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/hk/insurance/hkg-1299/aia-group-shares/news/reassessing-aia-group-sehk1299-after-mixed-share-price-perfo><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you are wondering whether AIA Group is priced attractively today, this article walks through what the current share price could mean for you as an investor. The stock last closed at HK$80.30, with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/hk/insurance/hkg-1299/aia-group-shares/news/reassessing-aia-group-sehk1299-after-mixed-share-price-perfo\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1105468828.SGD","symbol_name":"Allianz Total Return Asian Equity AM DIS H2-SGD","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/hk/insurance/hkg-1299/aia-group-shares/news/reassessing-aia-group-sehk1299-after-mixed-share-price-perfo","article_id":"2611816974","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/industry/7212000-choice1-main-header/1585186806799"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/hk/insurance/hkg-1299/aia-group-shares/news/reassessing-aia-group-sehk1299-after-mixed-share-price-perfo","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2611816974","pubTimestamp":1770993165,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"If you are wondering whether AIA Group is priced attractively today, this article walks through what the current share price could mean for you as an investor.\nThe stock last closed at HK$80.30, with returns of a 3.8% decline over 7 days, a 5.2% decline over 30 days, a 3.6% decline year to date, 46.6% over 1 year, 3.5% over 3 years, and an 11.8% decline over 5 years, which gives a mixed picture of recent momentum and risk perception.\nRecent news and market commentary around AIA Group has...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"81299":"友邦保险-R","LU1105468828.SGD":"Allianz Total Return Asian Equity AM DIS H2-SGD","LU0084288322.USD":"Natixis Asia Equity RD USD","LU2348774022.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Emerging Markets Sustainable Development Equity A Acc SGD-H","LU0630378429.USD":"HSBC GIF ASIA PACIFIC EX JAPAN EQ HD \"AM2\" (USD) INC","LU2039709279.SGD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU1568876251.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0165289439.USD":"HSBC GIF ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"AC\" ACC","LU0169518387.USD":"JPM ASIA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0149534421.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF HONG KONG EQ \"A\" ACC","AIA":"iShares S&P Asia 50 Index Fund","LU2152927971.USD":"NORDEA 1 ASIAN STARS EQUITY \"BP\" (USD) ACC","LU1712237335.SGD":"Natixis Mirova Global Sustainable Equity H-R-NPF/A SGD","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","LU0251143458.SGD":"Fidelity Emerging Markets A-SGD","LU2089284900.SGD":"Allianz Global Sustainability Cl AM Dis H2-SGD","LU0516423174.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0577902298.EUR":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA GROWTH & INCOME EQUITIE \"I\" (EUR) ACC","LU0228367735.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - 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The stock last closed at HK$80.30, with returns of a 3.8% decline over 7 days, a 5.2% decline over 30 days, a 3.6% decline year to date, 46.6% over 1 year, 3.5% over 3 years, and an 11.8% decline over 5 years, which gives a mixed picture of recent momentum and risk perception. Recent news and market commentary around AIA Group has focused on its position in the Hong Kong insurance sector and how sentiment toward financials has been shifting over time. This context helps explain why the share price has moved differently over shorter and longer periods, and why investors are rechecking what they are willing to pay for the stock. On our valuation checks, AIA Group scores 4 out of 6 for being potentially undervalued, and next we will look at what that number means across different valuation methods before finishing with a way to assess valuation that goes beyond just the headline metrics.  Find out why AIA Group's 46.6% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers. AdvertisementApproach 1: AIA Group Excess Returns Analysis The Excess Returns model looks at how much profit a company can generate above its cost of equity, based on the capital invested in the business. Instead of focusing only on current earnings, it asks whether each additional dollar of equity is expected to create value or simply cover its required return. For AIA Group, the model uses a Book Value of HK$3.85 per share and a Stable EPS estimate of HK$0.79 per share, based on weighted future Return on Equity estimates from 15 analysts. The Cost of Equity is HK$0.33 per share, so the Excess Return is HK$0.46 per share, which is what the model treats as value created after covering the equity charge. The Average Return on Equity used in the model is 16.63%, with a Stable Book Value of HK$4.78 per share, sourced from weighted future Book Value estimates from 14 analysts. On this basis, the Excess Returns valuation points to an intrinsic value of HK$127.70 per share. Against the current share price of HK$80.30, that indicates the stock is 37.1% undervalued according to this approach. Result: UNDERVALUED Our Excess Returns analysis suggests AIA Group is undervalued by 37.1%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 233 more high quality undervalued stocks. 1299 Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for AIA Group. Approach 2: AIA Group Price vs Earnings For a profitable company like AIA Group, the P/E ratio is a useful way to relate what you are paying for each share to the earnings the business is currently generating. It also gives you a quick check on how the market is weighing the company’s quality and prospects against other insurers. What counts as a “normal” P/E depends largely on two things: growth expectations and risk. Higher expected earnings growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher multiple, while lower growth or higher risk usually points to a lower one. AIA Group currently trades on a P/E of 17.83x. That sits above the Insurance industry average of 12.22x, while being below the peer group average of 28.50x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for AIA Group is 11.46x. This Fair Ratio is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E could be, given factors such as the company’s earnings growth profile, its industry, profit margins, market cap and risk characteristics. Because the Fair Ratio blends these company specific drivers, it can be more informative than a simple comparison with broad industry or peer averages. Against this 11.46x Fair Ratio, AIA Group’s current 17.83x P/E suggests the shares are trading at a richer level on this metric. Result: OVERVALUED SEHK:1299 P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 101 top founder-led companies. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your AIA Group Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let us introduce you to Narratives, which are simply your own story about AIA Group that links what you believe about its future revenue, earnings and margins to a set of forecast numbers and a fair value. On Simply Wall St’s Community page you can see different Narratives side by side, compare their Fair Values with today’s HK$80.30 share price to decide whether you think the stock looks expensive or cheap for your own buy or sell decisions, and watch those Narratives update automatically when new earnings or news arrive. One investor might build a Narrative closer to the higher HK$104.77 analyst target with stronger margin and P/E assumptions, while another might anchor nearer the HK$80.82 target with more cautious expectations, and both are using the same tool in a straightforward, accessible way. Do you think there's more to the story for AIA Group? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! SEHK:1299 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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