A Look At AppFolio (APPF) Valuation After Mixed Earnings And Cautious 2026 Guidance

Simply Wall St.02-14

AdvertisementWhy AppFolio Stock Is Back in Focus After Earnings AppFolio (APPF) is back on investor watchlists after its latest quarterly results, which paired 22% year-over-year revenue growth and 8%...

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See our latest analysis for AppFolio. At a share price of US$178.41, AppFolio has seen pressure recently, with a 30 day share price return of 16.22% and a 90 day share price return of 28.05%, even though the three year total shareholder return of 35.65% remains positive. This suggests that markets are reassessing near term growth versus longer term progress after the latest earnings and shelf registration filing. If AppFolio’s recent swing has you rethinking your watchlist, it could be a good moment to broaden your search with 23 top founder-led companies. With the share price down over the past year despite double digit revenue and net income growth, and trading at a discount to analyst targets and intrinsic estimates, investors may now need to ask whether there is genuine upside or whether the market is already pricing in future growth. Most Popular Narrative: 42.8% Undervalued AppFolio’s most followed narrative pegs fair value at about $311.83 per share, which is well above the last close of $178.41, and that gap is built on specific growth, margin and valuation assumptions rather than sentiment alone.  Expansion of integrated ecosystem partnerships (e.g., AppFolio Stack, fintech solutions, and third-party partner integrations) provides customers with more seamless, end-to-end experiences, increasing the platform's stickiness, ARPU, and recurring revenue potential.  Read the complete narrative. Curious what kind of revenue runway, profit margins, and future P/E multiple need to line up for that valuation to make sense? The narrative leans on a specific earnings path, a premium earnings multiple, and a defined discount rate to back into that fair value. The tension between strong unit economics and moderating growth expectations is front and center. If you want to see exactly how those pieces fit together, the full story is worth a closer read. Result: Fair Value of $311.83 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, you still need to weigh tougher competition in AI property tools, along with higher regulatory and third party compliance costs that could pressure margins and growth assumptions. Find out about the key risks to this AppFolio narrative. Another Way To Look At AppFolio’s Valuation That 42.8% “undervalued” call hinges on future growth and margins, but the current P/E of 45.6x tells a different story. It sits well above the US Software average of 26.7x, the peer average of 16.7x, and even our fair ratio of 31.2x. This suggests there may be less room for error if sentiment cools. When one model points to upside and the current P/E points to rich expectations, which signal do you put more weight on for your own thesis? See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. NasdaqGM:APPF P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026 Build Your Own AppFolio Narrative If you see the numbers differently or simply want to stress test your own view, you can build a tailored AppFolio thesis in just a few minutes by starting with Do it your way. A great starting point for your AppFolio research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Ready For More Investment Ideas? If AppFolio has sparked new questions about your portfolio, do not stop here, the next moves you make could matter far more than this single stock.  Target resilient income by scanning companies that look like potential 13 dividend fortresses and see which ones could fit your long term cash flow goals. Hunt for quality at a sensible price by reviewing our 53 high quality undervalued stocks that pair fundamentals with more grounded valuations. Protect your downside first by checking out a 85 resilient stocks with low risk scores that screens for businesses with steadier risk profiles.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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