Assessing Olin’s Valuation As 2025 Earnings Swing From Profit To Net Loss

Simply Wall St.02-12

AdvertisementEarnings setback reshapes the Olin story Olin (OLN) has moved into the spotlight after reporting a fourth quarter and full year 2025 net loss, a shift from profit a year earlier that puts...

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The company reported fourth quarter sales of US$1,665.1 million compared with US$1,671.3 million in the prior year period, while fourth quarter net loss reached US$85.7 million versus net income of US$10.7 million a year ago. For the full year 2025, sales were US$6,780.8 million compared with US$6,540.1 million in 2024, and the company recorded a net loss of US$42.8 million compared with net income of US$108.6 million in the previous year. See our latest analysis for Olin. Despite reporting a net loss for 2025, Olin's recent share price momentum has been positive, with a 30 day share price return of 13.11% and a 90 day share price return of 26.72%. That short term strength contrasts with a 1 year total shareholder return decline of 2.54% and a 3 year total shareholder return decline of 54.75%, suggesting that recent optimism is building from a much weaker longer term base while investors weigh the earnings setback and the long running buyback program. If this earnings reset has you reassessing your exposure to materials and industrial names, it could be a good moment to broaden your search and check out 22 top founder-led companies as a curated list of other ideas to review next. So with Olin projecting a 2025 loss, a recent share price rebound and a large historical buyback, is the current valuation still leaving room for upside, or is the market already pricing in a recovery story? Most Popular Narrative: 6% Overvalued Olin’s most followed narrative pegs fair value at $24.73, slightly below the last close of $26.32, setting up a debate over how much recovery is already priced in.  Structural cost reduction initiatives (Beyond250 and Epoxy cost optimization) are expected to deliver significant operational savings, yielding an estimated $70 to $90 million run-rate benefit by the end of 2025 and additional structural cost reductions from the Stade, Germany facility in 2026; this should improve net margins and boost earnings quality.  Read the complete narrative. Curious what kind of revenue path and margin rebuild sit behind that fair value? The narrative leans on firm volume assumptions and a profit reset that is anything but conservative. Result: Fair Value of $24.73 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, that recovery story leans on assumptions that global overcapacity eases and Winchester pricing holds up, and setbacks on either front could quickly undercut this thesis. Find out about the key risks to this Olin narrative. Another angle on value The analyst narrative suggests Olin is 6% overvalued at $26.32 versus a fair value of $24.73, but our DCF model points in a different direction, with an estimate of $71.07. That is a big gap, so which set of assumptions do you think feels more realistic for the next few years? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. OLN Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026 Build Your Own Olin Narrative If you see the story differently or want to test your own assumptions against the data, you can build a custom thesis in minutes with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Olin research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If you stop with one idea, you could miss opportunities that fit your goals far better, so keep widening your field of view with focused stock lists.  Zero in on value by reviewing companies our screener tags as potential bargains with 51 high quality undervalued stocks based on quality, price and fundamentals. Prioritise resilience and capital strength with the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (45 results) so you focus on businesses with financial foundations that may better handle shocks. Hunt for lesser known opportunities through our screener containing 24 high quality undiscovered gems which highlights companies that have strong fundamentals but are not widely followed.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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