Has AAR (AIR) Rallied Too Far After Aviation Supply Chain Optimism?

Simply Wall St.02-19

If you are wondering whether AAR's current share price lines up with its underlying worth, this article will walk through what the numbers are actually saying about value. AAR's stock last closed at ...

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AAR's stock last closed at ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/capital-goods/nyse-air/aar/news/has-aar-air-rallied-too-far-after-aviation-supply-chain-opti\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"simplywall_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Has AAR (AIR) Rallied Too Far After Aviation Supply Chain Optimism?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHas AAR (AIR) Rallied Too Far After Aviation Supply Chain Optimism?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-19 17:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/capital-goods/nyse-air/aar/news/has-aar-air-rallied-too-far-after-aviation-supply-chain-opti><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you are wondering whether AAR's current share price lines up with its underlying worth, this article will walk through what the numbers are actually saying about value. AAR's stock last closed at ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/capital-goods/nyse-air/aar/news/has-aar-air-rallied-too-far-after-aviation-supply-chain-opti\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4187","symbol_name":"航天航空与国防","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/capital-goods/nyse-air/aar/news/has-aar-air-rallied-too-far-after-aviation-supply-chain-opti","article_id":"2612062894","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/industry/3021000-choice2-main-header/1585186565541"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/capital-goods/nyse-air/aar/news/has-aar-air-rallied-too-far-after-aviation-supply-chain-opti","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2612062894","pubTimestamp":1771493324,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"If you are wondering whether AAR's current share price lines up with its underlying worth, this article will walk through what the numbers are actually saying about value.\nAAR's stock last closed at US$114.63, with returns of 0.9% over the past 7 days, 9.1% over 30 days, 35.7% year to date, 78.3% over 1 year, 112.5% over 3 years, and 168.0% over 5 years, which may influence how much upside or downside you feel is left.\nRecent news coverage around AAR has largely focused on its role in the...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4187":"航天航空与国防","IE00B66KJ199.SGD":"LEGG MASON ROYCE US SMALL CAP OPPORTUNITY  \" A\" (SGD) ACC","BK7031":"贸易公司与经销商","IE0031619046.USD":"LEGG MASON ROYCE US SMALL CAP OPPORTUNITY \"A\" (USD) INC","AIR.AU":"Astivita Ltd","IE00B19Z4B17.USD":"LEGG MASON ROYCE US SMALL CAP OPPORTUNITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B7SZL793.SGD":"Legg Mason Royce - US Small Cap Opportunity A Acc SGD-H","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","BK4572":"航空租赁","AIR":"AAR公司"},"translate_title":"在航空供应链乐观之后，AAR(AIR)是否上涨太多了？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AIR":1.5,"DCF":1,"AIR.AU":1.5},"content_text":"If you are wondering whether AAR's current share price lines up with its underlying worth, this article will walk through what the numbers are actually saying about value. AAR's stock last closed at US$114.63, with returns of 0.9% over the past 7 days, 9.1% over 30 days, 35.7% year to date, 78.3% over 1 year, 112.5% over 3 years, and 168.0% over 5 years, which may influence how much upside or downside you feel is left. Recent news coverage around AAR has largely focused on its role in the aviation and aerospace supply chain and ongoing interest from investors in companies tied to aircraft maintenance and parts. These themes provide useful context for understanding why the share price has moved the way it has in recent periods. On our framework, AAR currently scores 1 out of 6 on the valuation checks for being undervalued, giving it a value score of 1/6. In the following sections, we look at what different valuation approaches say about this score and then finish with a way to put all of these methods into a clearer big picture.  AAR scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown. AdvertisementApproach 1: AAR Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis The DCF model projects AAR's future cash flows and discounts them back to today using a required rate of return, giving an estimate of what the business might be worth on a cash flow basis. For AAR, the latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is a loss of about $36.0 million. Analysts and extrapolated estimates point to Free Cash Flow of $21.82 million in 2026 and $132.0 million by 2030, with interim years stepping up between those points. Simply Wall St uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, where analyst forecasts are used first. Further cash flows are then extrapolated beyond that period. When all these projected cash flows are discounted back, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $62.32 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $114.63, this implies the stock is about 84.0% overvalued on this DCF view. Result: OVERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests AAR may be overvalued by 84.0%. Discover 53 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities. AIR Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for AAR. Approach 2: AAR Price vs Earnings For a profitable company, the P/E ratio is a useful way to see how much investors are paying for each dollar of earnings. It links the share price directly to the bottom line, which is what ultimately supports long term returns. What counts as a \"normal\" P/E depends on what the market expects from the business and how risky those earnings appear. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher multiple, while slower growth or higher risk usually lines up with a lower one. AAR currently trades on a P/E of 47.55x. That sits above the Aerospace & Defense industry average of 42.65x and below the peer group average of 72.12x. Simply Wall St's Fair Ratio for AAR is 38.78x, which is its view of the P/E that would make sense given factors such as AAR's earnings growth profile, margins, industry, market cap and risk characteristics. The Fair Ratio aims to be more tailored than a simple comparison with peers or the broad industry because it adjusts for those company specific traits rather than assuming all firms deserve the same multiple. With AAR on 47.55x compared to a Fair Ratio of 38.78x, the shares screen as trading above that fair value range on this metric. Result: OVERVALUED NYSE:AIR P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 22 top founder-led companies. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your AAR Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives let you attach a clear story about AAR, your view on its future revenue, earnings and margins, to a financial forecast that leads to your own fair value. All of this happens inside Simply Wall St's Community page where millions of investors share their views. You can, for example, side with a more optimistic AAR Narrative that leans on expanding MRO capacity, digital platforms like Trax and long term government contracts, implying a fair value closer to about US$110.67. Alternatively, you can choose a more cautious Narrative that leans on risks such as commercial aviation cyclicality, OEM competition and execution challenges. Then you can simply compare whichever fair value you agree with against the current share price, with the platform automatically updating that Narrative whenever fresh news, earnings or guidance is added. Do you think there's more to the story for AAR? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NYSE:AIR 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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