Upgraded Copper Outlook And Antamina Silver Stream Could Be A Game Changer For BHP Group (ASX:BHP)

Simply Wall St.02-18

Earlier this week, BHP Group reported half-year 2026 results showing higher sales of US$27,902 million and net income of US$5,640 million, with copper surpassing iron ore as its main earnings driver, ...

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The company also entered a US$4.30 billion silver streaming agreement over Antamina output with Wheaton Precious Metals, unlocking cash from a non-core by-product to fund copper and potash growth projects while reinforcing its shift toward future-facing commodities. We will now examine how BHP’s upgraded copper guidance and record Antamina silver stream reshape the company’s broader investment narrative. Outshine the giants: these 26 early-stage AI stocks could fund your retirement.AdvertisementBHP Group Investment Narrative RecapBHP’s investment case increasingly rests on its pivot toward copper and potash while still relying on cash flows from iron ore and coal. The latest half-year result and upgraded copper guidance support that transition and appear to strengthen the near term growth catalyst around copper volumes. At the same time, the biggest current risk remains execution on large projects like Jansen and Vicuña, where delays or cost overruns could strain margins despite the fresh Antamina streaming cash. The US$4.30 billion Antamina silver stream with Wheaton Precious Metals is particularly relevant here, because it converts a non core by product into upfront cash that BHP has flagged for copper and potash growth. That aligns directly with the upgraded copper production guidance out to FY2027 and highlights how BHP is reshaping its portfolio toward “future facing” commodities while still keeping its balance sheet capacity to support ongoing dividends like the US$0.73 interim payout. Yet even with copper’s rise, investors should be aware that project execution risk at Jansen and other growth assets could still... Read the full narrative on BHP Group (it's free!)BHP Group's narrative projects $49.6 billion revenue and $10.0 billion earnings by 2028. This requires a 1.1% yearly revenue decline and a $1.0 billion earnings increase from $9.0 billion today.Uncover how BHP Group's forecasts yield a A$48.17 fair value, a 8% downside to its current price.Exploring Other PerspectivesASX:BHP 1-Year Stock Price Chart Some of the most optimistic analysts were already assuming revenue around US$61.8 billion and earnings near US$16.9 billion by 2029, so if you are leaning that way you are effectively betting that copper growth and disciplined capex will outweigh the project risk around Jansen that this latest guidance brings into sharper focus.Explore 15 other fair value estimates on BHP Group - why the stock might be worth as much as 6% more than the current price!The Verdict Is YoursDisagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.A great starting point for your BHP Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.Our free BHP Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate BHP Group's overall financial health at a glance.Curious About Other Options?Don't miss your shot at the next 10-bagger. Our latest stock picks just dropped:Explore 24 top quantum computing companies leading the revolution in next-gen technology and shaping the future with breakthroughs in quantum algorithms, superconducting qubits, and cutting-edge research.Uncover the next big thing with 59 elite penny stocks that balance risk and reward.Rare earth metals are the new gold rush. Find out which 30 stocks are leading the charge.  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if BHP Group might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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