Options Corner: Palantir Stock's Brutal Start Is Finally Showing Signs Of Improvement

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The key driver for the skew is IV, which is a residual metric derived from actual order flows. As the name suggests, IV shows what is likely to be the dispersed range of movement of the target ...

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As the name suggests, IV shows what is likely to be the dispersed range of movement of the target ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/26/02/50735351/palantir-pltr-stock-meltdown-contrarian-opportunity\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"benzinga_recent_news","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Options Corner: Palantir Stock's Brutal Start Is Finally Showing Signs Of Improvement</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOptions Corner: Palantir Stock's Brutal Start Is Finally Showing Signs Of Improvement\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-20 05:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/26/02/50735351/palantir-pltr-stock-meltdown-contrarian-opportunity><strong>Benzinga_recent_news</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The key driver for the skew is IV, which is a residual metric derived from actual order flows. As the name suggests, IV shows what is likely to be the dispersed range of movement of the target ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/26/02/50735351/palantir-pltr-stock-meltdown-contrarian-opportunity\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"PLYY","symbol_name":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST PLTR ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/26/02/50735351/palantir-pltr-stock-meltdown-contrarian-opportunity","article_id":"2612233259","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://cdn.benzinga.com/files/images/story/2026/02/19/New-York-City--New-York---July-14-2025-P.jpeg?optimize=medium&dpr=2&auto=webp&width=240"],"rights":{"source":"benzinga_recent_news","url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/26/02/50735351/palantir-pltr-stock-meltdown-contrarian-opportunity","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2612233259","pubTimestamp":1771535400,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"benzinga_recent_news","name":"Benzinga"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"While Palantir has technically started the new year deep in red ink, the smart money's relaxed hedging may signal optimism for PLTR stock.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"benzinga.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"PLYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST PLTR ETF","BK4023":"应用软件","PLTD":"1倍做空PLTR ETF-Direxion","PLTG":"2倍做多PLTR ETF-Leverage Shares","BK4543":"AI","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","PLTI":"REX PLTR Growth & Income ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","IE00B19Z9Z06.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc USD","PTIR":"2倍做多PLTR ETF-GraniteShares","PLTU":"2倍做多PLTR ETF-Direxion","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","PLTW":"PLTR周配息ETF-Roundhill","BK4613":"AI应用软件","IE00B19Z9P08.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","PLTY":"PLTR期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","IE00B894F039.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc SGD-H","BK4135":"资产管理与托管银行","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","PLTZ":"2倍做空PLTR ETF-Defiance","BK4588":"碎股","PLOO":"2倍上限加速PLTR ETF-Leverage Shares","PLT":"Defiance Leveraged Long Plus Income PLTR ETF","IE00BZ9MQY76.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (HKD) ACC","PLTA":"ProShares Ultra PLTR ETF"},"translate_title":"期权角：Palantir股票的残酷开局终于显示出改善的迹象","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"PLYY":0.6,"PLOO":0.6,"PLTY":0.6,"PTIR":0.6,"PLTD":0.6,"PLTR":1.96,"PLT":0.6,"PLTZ":0.6,"PLTG":0.6,"PLTW":0.6,"PLTU":0.6,"PLTA":0.6,"PLTI":0.6},"content_text":"The key driver for the skew is IV, which is a residual metric derived from actual order flows. As the name suggests, IV shows what is likely to be the dispersed range of movement of the target security given the order flows that are circulating in the system. With the skew, a trader can see how much IV is priced into calls and puts for a specific expiration date.\nLooking at the March 20 expiration, the overall posture is one of standard downside hedging. Most importantly, nothing about the skew suggests urgent downside mitigation, let alone panic.\nIn particular, the skew for strikes near the spot price is relatively flat, with the IV spread between calls and puts being extremely tight. For the strikes that are likely to be triggered due to proximity, the smart money is relaxed.\nYes, the skew does rise on both ends, with the left end suggesting some protection against downside tail risk and the right side indicative of possible synthetic short positioning — perhaps to protect actual long exposure.\nAs previously stated, there is hedging going on; it's just that the hedging is controlled and hardly remarkable. While the skew isn't overtly declaring that the sophisticated players are bullish, it does seem to communicate that bearishness is not the overwhelming motivation.\nWhere does this dispersion come from? Black-Scholes assumes a world where stock market returns are lognormally distributed. Under this framework, the above range represents where PLTR stock may symmetrically fall one standard deviation away from spot (while accounting for volatility and days to expiration).\nMathematically, Black-Scholes asserts that in 68% of cases, Palantir stock would be expected to trade within the prescribed range 30 days from now. It's a reasonable assumption, if only for the fact that it would take an extraordinary catalyst to drive a security beyond one standard deviation from spot.\nHowever, the conceptual sticking point with the expected move calculation is that we only know how the market is pricing uncertainty, not whether this pricing is rationally justified. To extract even more insights, we need to gravitate toward second-order analyses, which condition observed data based on some empirical anchor.\nIt's here that the search-and-rescue (SAR) analogy does much of the cognitive heavy lifting. If PLTR stock were a lone shipwrecked survivor, then Black-Scholes would represent the satellite system that identified a distress signal somewhere in the Pacific Ocean. Through theoretical drift patterns, we can establish a realistic search radius based on the signal's location.\nHowever, we still don't know where within the radius the survivor is likely to be found. Since we live in a world of limited resources, we can't dedicate a full-on search indefinitely for one person. At some point, we need to use probabilistic math to best estimate where the survivor is likely to be.\nIt's here that the Markov property comes into frame.\nUnder Markov, the future state of a system depends entirely on the present state. Colloquially, forward probabilities should not be calculated independently but be assessed in context. Extending the SAR analogy, different ocean currents — such as choppy waves versus calm waters — can easily influence where a shipwrecked survivor is likely to drift.\nHere's how the Markov property is relevant to Palantir stock. In the past five weeks, PLTR printed only two up weeks, leading to an overall downward slope. Now, there's nothing special about this 2-3-D sequence, per se. However, this quantitative signal represents a unique ocean current — and survivors caught in these waters would be expected to drift in a particular manner.\nFrom here, we can apply enumerative induction and Bayesian-inspired inference to best estimate where PLTR stock is likely to drift given the environment the security finds itself in. Basically, the idea is to take the median pathway associated with the 2-3-D quant signal and apply it to the current spot price, thereby mapping out a forward distribution.\nIn the spirit of full transparency, David Hume famously critiqued induction, effectively stating the future is not necessarily compelled by the past. However, such a philosophical take would apply to all inductive processes, including gravity. My counterargument is that relative to second-order analyses, the Markov approach arguably uses the fewest assumptions.\nIf you accept the premise, we can calculate the expected forward five-week return of PLTR stock to be somewhere between $120 and $160, with probability density peaking at around $137. However, density should be relatively elevated between $133 and $147, thus significantly narrowing our target area relative to the Black-Scholes dispersion.\nBased on the market intelligence above, I'm tempted by the 140/145 bull call spread expiring March 20. This wager requires PLTR stock to rise through the $145 strike at expiration to generate the maximum payout of almost 178%. Breakeven lands at $141.80, helping to improve the trade's probabilistic credibility.\nImage: Shutterstock\nTo add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2612233259","isCrawlerRequest":true}